NYY⇄TOR

NYYNYY Bob Watson net +$5.6M net +0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1997 odds 74% → 76% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Angel Ramirez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Gord Ash net −$5.6M net -0.3

received +$0.8M+$0.0M ± $7M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 1.0 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 1997 odds 5% → 4% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mariano Duncan2B/SS·34y·R/R

+$0.7M−$0.1M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.77/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.