SDP⇄HOU

SDPSDP Randy Smith net +$29.6M net +14.8

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $66M expected surplus · +$108.8M realized received 11.9 ± 8 expected · 23.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1995 odds 1% → 2% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andújar CedeñoSS·25y·R/R

+$10.2M+$10.2M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$20.0M 3.0± 4 exp WARrealized -2.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.75/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Sean FeshP·22y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#1467 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Brian WilliamsP·26y·R/R

+$0.4M+$0.4M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

#31 overall draft pick → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Steve FinleyOF·30y·L/L

−$1.0M−$1.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$12.8M 3.4± 3 exp WARrealized 7.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.5/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

2.32/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.99 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Roberto Petagine1B·24y·L/L

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $35M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.5± 4 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.5/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Ken Caminiti3B·32y·B/R

−$14.5M−$14.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$110.4M 3.2± 3 exp WARrealized 17.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.2/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

2.21/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Bob Watson net −$29.6M net -14.8

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $58M expected surplus · +$79.2M realized received 5.1 ± 7 expected · 9.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 1995 odds 75% → 52% (-22.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Phil PlantierOF·26y·L/R

+$9.9M+$9.9M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 2.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.66/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Doug BrocailP·28y·L/R

+$6.1M+$6.1M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.7± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.46/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Derek BellOF·26y·R/R

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$117.6M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized 12.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Pedro MartínezP·26y·L/L

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.5± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Craig Shipley3B/SS·32y·R/R

−$1.7M−$1.7M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.08/yr blended

Horizon

3.3 control yrs × 0.30 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Ricky GutiérrezSS·25y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$16.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -2.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.4/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

-0.57/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.