SDP⇄HOU

SDPSDP Randy Smith net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Pedro MartínezP·27y·L/L

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

-0.02/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Bob Watson net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ray HolbertSS·25y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#58 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.