HOU⇄DET

HOUHOU Bob Watson net −$16.0M net +0.9

received −$17.6M−$24.8M ± $10M expected surplus · −$20.0M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 1995 odds 45% → 52% (+7.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike HennemanP·33y·R/R

−$17.9M−$24.7M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$20.0M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.63/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Joe Klein net +$16.0M net -0.9

received +$104.0M+$104.0M ± $34M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 12.0 ± 4 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1995 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Phil Nevin1B/3B·24y·R/R

+$104.2M+$104.2M± $34M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 12.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#1 overall draft pick → 2.17/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

2.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.