RRosternomics
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MF

Mike Flanagan

Dec 16, 1951 (Manchester, NH) – Aug 24, 2011 (Sparks, MD) · died at 59

General manager for the Orioles (2003–2007).

5 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs0
Record362–448
Win %0.447
-0.4GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±5.789th/195 execs
6.4Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)89th/195 execs
-6.0Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)140th/195 execs
46%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)167th/195 execs
$16MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track96th/195 execs
$11MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)58th/195 execs
$2MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade93rd/195 execs
$2MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees52nd/195 execs
-16.5TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total135th/195 execs
-39.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)175th/195 execs
1.23Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)118th/195 execs
-85Roster surplus $M125th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
▸ Orioles GM 2003–2007 5 -39.8 -7.95 -16.5 -42.2 +56.3 -8.5 -0.0 -0.1 1.23 0.447 ––– -85
Career total (1985+ data) 5 -39.8 -16.5 -42.2 +56.3 -8.5 -0.0 -0.1 1.23 0.447 –– – -85

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

by valueby volume

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+56.3
Trade-8.5
Free agency-0.0
Rule 5 / minor draft-0.1
Sourcing mix: 57% draft · 37% FA · 5% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Mike Flanagan's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 95 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Nick Markakis OF BAL Draft 2003 9 +23.0 +2.6 –
Miguel Tejada SS BAL Free agency 2003 4 +17.5 +4.4 13.7
Matt Wieters C BAL Draft 2007 8 +16.5 +2.1 –
Jeremy Guthrie P BAL Trade 2007 5 +10.0 +2.0 0.6
Zack Britton P BAL Draft 2006 8 +9.2 +1.1 –
Ramón Hernández C BAL Free agency 2005 3 +6.1 +2.0 1.1
Javy López C BAL Free agency 2004 2 +6.1 +3.1 10.6
Corey Patterson OF BAL Trade 2006 3 +5.2 +1.7 1.0
Aubrey Huff 1B BAL Free agency 2007 2 +4.7 +2.4 0.2
Brad Bergesen P BAL Draft 2004 3 +2.5 +0.8 –
Jake Arrieta P BAL Draft 2007 3 +2.3 +0.8 –
Brian Burres P BAL Trade 2006 3 +1.7 +0.6 –
Nolan Reimold OF BAL Draft 2005 4 +1.6 +0.4 –
Bruce Chen P BAL Trade 2004 2 +1.6 +0.8 1.7
Omar Daal P BAL Free agency 2003 1 +1.3 +1.3 0.4
Dave Borkowski P BAL Free agency 2003 1 +1.1 +1.1 2.8
Chad Bradford P BAL Free agency 2006 2 +1.1 +0.5 0.3
Sal Fasano C BAL Free agency 2004 1 +0.9 +0.9 2.0
Garrett Olson P BAL Draft 2005 1 +0.9 +0.9 –
David Newhan OF BAL Free agency 2004 1 +0.7 +0.7 5.5
Chris Ray P BAL Draft 2003 3 +0.7 +0.2 –
Deivi Cruz SS BAL Trade 2003 1 +0.7 +0.7 0.2
LaTroy Hawkins P BAL Trade 2006 1 +0.7 +0.7 0.2
Kris Benson P BAL Trade 2006 1 +0.6 +0.6 0.2
Jason Berken P BAL Draft 2006 2 +0.6 +0.3 –
Jeff Fiorentino OF BAL Draft 2004 2 +0.6 +0.3 –
Kerry Ligtenberg P BAL Free agency 2003 1 +0.6 +0.6 0.2
Oscar Salazar OF BAL Free agency 2006 2 +0.5 +0.3 0.1
Kevin Millar 1B/OF BAL Free agency 2006 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.2
Todd Williams P BAL Free agency 2004 2 +0.4 +0.2 0.2
Robert Machado C BAL Free agency 2003 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.2
Jay Payton OF BAL Free agency 2006 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.2
Eli Marrero C/OF BAL Trade 2005 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.7
David Hernandez P BAL Draft 2005 1 +0.2 +0.2 –
Luis Hernández SS BAL Trade 2006 1 +0.2 +0.2 –
Jon Leicester P BAL Free agency 2006 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
Tike Redman OF BAL Free agency 2007 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
Scott Williamson P BAL Free agency 2006 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Mike DeJean P BAL Trade 2004 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.4
Rick Helling P BAL Trade 2003 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
Ramón Nivar OF BAL Trade 2005 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.5
Randor Bierd P BAL Rule 5 2007 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Jack Cust DH/OF BAL Trade 2003 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Jim Miller P BAL Trade 2007 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Guillermo Quiroz C BAL Free agency 2007 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Brandon Snyder 1B/3B BAL Draft 2005 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Fernando Tatís 3B BAL Free agency 2005 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Winston Abreu P BAL Trade 2006 – -0.0 – –
Alberto Castillo C BAL Trade 2007 – -0.0 – –
Bernie Castro 2B BAL Trade 2005 – -0.0 – –
Zach Clark P BAL Intl FA 2006 – -0.0 – –
Midre Cummings OF BAL Free agency 2005 – -0.0 – –
Blake Davis 2B BAL Draft 2006 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Chris Gomez SS BAL Free agency 2004 2 +0.0 +0.0 0.2
J. R. House C BAL Free agency 2006 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Jon Knott DH/OF BAL Free agency 2007 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Scott Moore 1B/3B BAL Trade 2007 2 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Dennis Sarfate P BAL Trade 2007 – -0.0 – –
Pedro Swann OF BAL Free agency 2003 – -0.0 – –
Walter Young 1B BAL Trade 2003 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
James Baldwin P BAL Trade 2005 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Jaret Wright P BAL Trade 2007 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Adam Stern OF BAL Trade 2007 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Matt Angle OF BAL Draft 2007 – -0.1 – –
Tim Byrdak P BAL Free agency 2004 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.7
Héctor Carrasco P BAL Free agency 2003 – -0.1 – –
Cory Doyne P BAL Trade 2007 – -0.1 – –
Pedro Florimón SS BAL Intl FA 2004 – -0.1 – –
Joe Mahoney 1B BAL Draft 2007 – -0.1 – –
Chad Mottola OF BAL Free agency 2003 – -0.1 – –
Rob Bell P BAL Free agency 2006 – -0.2 – –
Ryan Bukvich P BAL Free agency 2007 – -0.2 – –
Jim Hoey P BAL Draft 2003 – -0.2 – –
Steve Reed P BAL Free agency 2005 – -0.2 – –
Paul Shuey P BAL Free agency 2007 – -0.2 – –
Luis Terrero OF BAL Free agency 2006 – -0.2 – –
Alejandro Freire 1B/DH BAL Trade 2005 – -0.3 – –
John Halama P BAL Free agency 2006 – -0.3 – –
Julio Mañón P BAL Free agency 2005 – -0.3 – –
Rocky Cherry P BAL Trade 2007 – -0.4 – –
Jason Grimsley P BAL Trade 2004 – -0.4 – –
Bob McCrory P BAL Draft 2003 – -0.4 – –
Carlos Méndez 1B/DH BAL Trade 2003 – -0.4 – –
José Morban 2B/SS/DH BAL Trade 2003 – -0.4 – –
Keith Osik C BAL Free agency 2004 – -0.4 – –
Ryan Adams 2B BAL Draft 2006 – -0.5 – –
Paul Bako C BAL Free agency 2006 – -0.5 – –
Fernando Cabrera P BAL Free agency 2007 – -0.5 – –
Jamie Walker P BAL Free agency 2006 1 -0.5 -0.5 0.2
Radhames Liz P BAL Intl FA 2003 – -0.6 – –
Freddie Bynum SS/OF BAL Trade 2007 1 -0.6 -0.6 0.1
Danys Báez P BAL Free agency 2006 1 -0.7 -0.7 0.0
Steve Kline P BAL Free agency 2004 – -0.7 – –
Steve Trachsel P BAL Free agency 2007 1 -0.8 -0.8 0.1
Sammy Sosa OF BAL Trade 2005 – -1.4 – –

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.