BAL⇄BOS

BALBAL Mike Flanagan net +$20.8M net +0.5

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $28M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.7 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2006 odds 2% → 2% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adam SternOF·26y·L/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.7± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#105 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Jed Hoyer net −$20.8M net -0.5

received +$3.2M+$2.4M ± $19M expected surplus · −$21.6M realized received 3.6 ± 2 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2006 odds 7% → 6% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Javy LópezC·35y·R/R

+$2.9M+$2.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$21.6M 3.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.6/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

2.47/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.