RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Jim Beattie

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.74× league · TAB -3.2
-3.2TAB — talent above budget19th/30
-7.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)24th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag10th/30
58%dead money %29th/30
0.438win %22nd/30
27.4roster fWAR20th/30
-18surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/30
$51Mpayroll $M20th/30

Roster

CFLuis Matos 106GTim Raines Jr. 17GMelvin Mora 12G
LFLarry Bigbie 76GMelvin Mora 56GB.J. Surhoff 24G
RFJay Gibbons 144GMelvin Mora 13GLarry Bigbie 5G
SSDeivi Cruz 147GJose Morban 14GMelvin Mora 11G
2BBrian Roberts 107GJerry Hairston Jr. 48GJose Morban 12G
3BTony Batista 154GJose Leon 10GJeff Conine 1G
1BJeff Conine 118GB.J. Surhoff 22GJay Gibbons 13G
STARTERSJason Johnson 2.1WARRodrigo Lopez 1.3WAROmar Daal 1.3WAREric DuBose 1.1WARPat Hentgen 1.1WAR
CBrook Fordyce 107GGeronimo Gil 53GRobert Machado 18G
DHDavid Segui 51GB.J. Surhoff 37GJack Cust 20G
BULLPEN★ Jorge Julio 36svB.J. Ryan 19hBuddy Groom 16hKerry Ligtenberg 14hHector Carrasco 8hRick Bauer 3hWillis Roberts 1hTravis Driskill 0h
CBrook Fordyce 107 · Geronimo Gil 53 · Robert Machado 18
1BJeff Conine 118 · B.J. Surhoff 22 · Jay Gibbons 13
2BBrian Roberts 107 · Jerry Hairston Jr. 48 · Jose Morban 12
3BTony Batista 154 · Jose Leon 10 · Jeff Conine 1
SSDeivi Cruz 147 · Jose Morban 14 · Melvin Mora 11
LFLarry Bigbie 76 · Melvin Mora 56 · B.J. Surhoff 24
CFLuis Matos 106 · Tim Raines Jr. 17 · Melvin Mora 12
RFJay Gibbons 144 · Melvin Mora 13 · Larry Bigbie 5
DHDavid Segui 51 · B.J. Surhoff 37 · Jack Cust 20
SPJason Johnson 2.1 · Rodrigo Lopez 1.3 · Omar Daal 1.3 · Eric DuBose 1.1 · Pat Hentgen 1.1
BP★ Jorge Julio 36 · B.J. Ryan 19 · Buddy Groom 16 · Kerry Ligtenberg 14 · Hector Carrasco 8 · Rick Bauer 3 · Willis Roberts 1 · Travis Driskill 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2003 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Melvin Mora 31 arb 965.0 1.7 +7.1
Luis Matos 24 – 1093.6 – –
Sidney Ponson↔ SFG 26 arb 213.4 2.9 +3.2
Brian Roberts 25 – 1122.9 – –
Jason Johnson 29 FA-elig 322.1 2.9 +0.9
B.J. Ryan 27 arb 761.6 0.8 +2.1
Rodrigo Lopez 27 arb 261.3 0.3 +2.0
Omar Daal 31 FA-elig 191.3 3.0 -0.8
Jeff Conine↔ MIA 37 FA-elig 1241.2 3.5 -1.4
Eric DuBose 27 – 171.1 – –
Pat Hentgen 34 FA-elig 281.1 1.2 +0.7
Jay Gibbons 26 pre-arb 1600.9 0.4 +1.2
Jerry Hairston Jr. 27 arb 580.8 1.6 -0.1
Larry Bigbie 25 – 830.7 – –
Deivi Cruz 30 FA-elig 1520.7 1.0 +0.3
Kerry Ligtenberg 32 FA-elig 680.6 1.2 -0.2
B.J. Surhoff 38 FA-elig 930.5 1.0 -0.1
Robert Machado 30 – 180.5 – –
Rick Bauer 26 pre-arb 350.5 0.3 +0.5
Brook Fordyce 33 FA-elig 1080.4 3.5 -2.8
Geronimo Gil 27 pre-arb 540.3 0.3 +0.2
Travis Driskill 31 – 200.2 – –
Rick Helling↔ MIA 32 FA-elig 240.2 0.7 -0.4
Matt Riley 23 – 20.2 – –
Jack Cust 24 – 270.2 – –
John Parrish 25 – 140.2 – –
Marty Cordova 33 FA-elig 90.1 3.1 -3.0
David Segui 36 FA-elig 67-0.0 7.0 -7.0
Pedro Swann 32 – 8-0.0 – –
Kurt Ainsworth↔ SFG 24 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Buddy Groom 37 FA-elig 60-0.0 3.0 -3.1
Hector Carrasco 33 – 40-0.1 – –
Sean Douglass 24 – 3-0.2 – –
Tony Batista 29 FA-elig 161-0.2 6.4 -6.7
Tim Raines Jr. 23 – 20-0.3 – –
Carlos Mendez 29 – 26-0.4 – –
Gary Matthews Jr.↔ SDP 28 arb 41-0.4 0.3 -0.9
Jose Leon 26 pre-arb 21-0.4 0.3 -1.0
Jose Morban 23 pre-arb 61-0.4 0.3 -1.1
Jorge Julio 24 pre-arb 64-0.4 0.3 -1.1
Willis Roberts 28 arb 26-0.5 3.5 -4.3
Damian Moss↔ SFG 26 pre-arb 10-0.7 0.5 -1.8

Key additions (new vs 2002)

PlayerfWAR
Omar Daal1.3
Deivi Cruz0.7
Kerry Ligtenberg0.6
B.J. Surhoff0.5
Robert Machado0.5
Rick Helling0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2002)

Player2002 fWAR
Chris Singleton1.7
Mike Bordick1.4
Scott Erickson0.6
John Stephens0.3
Howie Clark0.1
Erik Bedard0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2003 payroll
$51.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2003, 2003–2009. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
David Segui3613.000$7.0M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Tony Batista297.000$6.4MFREE AGENT
Jeff Conine3713.000$3.5MFREE AGENT$1.4M
Brook Fordyce338.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Marty Cordova338.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Omar Daal3110.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Buddy Groom3711.000$3.0M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Johnson296.000$2.9MFREE AGENT
Pat Hentgen3412.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Kerry Ligtenberg326.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
B.J. Surhoff3816.000$1.0M$800k$1.1MFREE AGENT
Deivi Cruz306.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Rick Helling329.000$686kFREE AGENT
Hector Carrasco339.000—FREE AGENT
Robert Machado307.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Willis Roberts284.000$3.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Sidney Ponson265.000$2.9MFREE AGENT
Melvin Mora314.000$1.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Hairston Jr.275.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
B.J. Ryan274.000$762kARB 3FREE AGENT
Rodrigo Lopez273.000$325kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gary Matthews Jr.284.000$256kARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Riley234.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Matos243.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Parrish253.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Damian Moss262.000$500kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Gibbons262.000$375kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Julio242.000$350kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Geronimo Gil272.000$330kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Bauer262.000$325kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Leon261.000$305kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Morban230.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kurt Ainsworth242.000$60kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Swann32–—
Travis Driskill31–—
Eric DuBose271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Mendez29–—
Sean Douglass242.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Cust242.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Raines Jr.23–—
Brian Roberts252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Larry Bigbie252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2003; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.