BAL⇄HOU

BALBAL Mike Flanagan net +$70.4M net +4.0

received +$81.6M+$81.6M ± $57M expected surplus · +$43.2M realized received 12.7 ± 7 expected · 8.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2008 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luke ScottDH/OF·30y·L/R

+$60.5M+$60.5M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$34.4M 6.7± 5 exp WARrealized 6.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.2/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

1.75/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.87 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Troy PattonP·22y·B/L

+$13.2M+$13.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 2.2± 3 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

Composite #78.0 pedigree (Baseball America #78 (2008)) → 0.44/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.41/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dennis SarfateP·27y·R/R

+$8.4M+$8.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.4± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#268 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Mike Costanzo1B/DH·24y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#65 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Matt AlbersP·25y·L/R

−$2.6M−$2.6M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 0.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

Composite #85.0 pedigree (Baseball America #85 (2007)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.05/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Tal Smith net −$70.4M net -4.0

received −$20.0M−$20.0M ± $18M expected surplus · −$27.2M realized received 4.0 ± 2 expected · 4.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2008 odds 15% → 16% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Miguel TejadaSS·34y·R/R

−$19.9M−$19.9M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$27.2M 4.0± 2 exp WARrealized 4.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.8/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

2.73/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.