KCR⇄BAL

KCRKCR Allard Baird net +$11.2M net +1.3

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 2.9 ± 3 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2004 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Denny BautistaP·23y·R/R

+$10.0M+$10.0M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 2.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

Composite #59.0 prospect (Baseball America #59 (2004)) → 0.52/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.52/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Jim Beattie net −$11.2M net -1.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $7M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2004 odds 32% → 30% (-2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason GrimsleyP·36y·R/R

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.49/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.