BAL⇄COL

BALBAL Jim Beattie net +$0.8M net +0.2

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $30M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2003 odds 3% → 4% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jack CustDH/OF·24y·L/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

Composite #100.0 pedigree (Baseball America #100 (2002)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net −$0.8M net -0.2

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $23M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.8 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2003 odds 2% → 2% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris Richard1B/OF·29y·L/L

+$7.0M+$7.0M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.8± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.53/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.