RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Jim Beattie

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.67× league · TAB +8.5
+8.5TAB — talent above budget7th/30
+1.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)16th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-5.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag21st/30
50%dead money %28th/30
0.481win %18th/30
37.7roster fWAR14th/30
+9surplus $M (value vs cost)6th/30
$45Mpayroll $M23rd/30

Roster

CFLuis Matos 89GLarry Bigbie 30GTim Raines Jr. 27G
LFLarry Bigbie 114GB.J. Surhoff 34GDavid Newhan 19G
RFJay Gibbons 66GKarim Garcia 58GB.J. Surhoff 38G
SSMiguel Tejada 162GLuis Lopez 14GMelvin Mora 1G
2BBrian Roberts 150GJerry Hairston Jr. 12GLuis Lopez 6G
3BMelvin Mora 137GDavid Newhan 17GLuis Lopez 11G
1BRafael Palmeiro 130GJose Leon 16GJay Gibbons 14G
STARTERSSidney Ponson 2.9WARRodrigo Lopez 2.7WARErik Bedard 2.4WARDaniel Cabrera 1.2WARDave Borkowski 1.1WAR
CJavy Lopez 132GRobert Machado 35GKeith Osik 11G
DHDavid Newhan 32GJavy Lopez 21GJerry Hairston Jr. 20G
BULLPEN★ Jorge Julio 22svB.J. Ryan 21hJason Grimsley 16hBuddy Groom 8hTodd Williams 3hJohn Parrish 2hEddy Rodriguez 0hRick Bauer 0h
CJavy Lopez 132 · Robert Machado 35 · Keith Osik 11
1BRafael Palmeiro 130 · Jose Leon 16 · Jay Gibbons 14
2BBrian Roberts 150 · Jerry Hairston Jr. 12 · Luis Lopez 6
3BMelvin Mora 137 · David Newhan 17 · Luis Lopez 11
SSMiguel Tejada 162 · Luis Lopez 14 · Melvin Mora 1
LFLarry Bigbie 114 · B.J. Surhoff 34 · David Newhan 19
CFLuis Matos 89 · Larry Bigbie 30 · Tim Raines Jr. 27
RFJay Gibbons 66 · Karim Garcia 58 · B.J. Surhoff 38
DHDavid Newhan 32 · Javy Lopez 21 · Jerry Hairston Jr. 20
SPSidney Ponson 2.9 · Rodrigo Lopez 2.7 · Erik Bedard 2.4 · Daniel Cabrera 1.2 · Dave Borkowski 1.1
BP★ Jorge Julio 22 · B.J. Ryan 21 · Jason Grimsley 16 · Buddy Groom 8 · Todd Williams 3 · John Parrish 2 · Eddy Rodriguez 0 · Rick Bauer 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2004 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Melvin Mora 32 arb 1406.2 2.3 +8.4
Miguel Tejada 30 FA-elig 1626.0 5.0 +5.3
Javy Lopez 33 FA-elig 1504.4 6.0 +1.6
B.J. Ryan 28 arb 763.3 1.3 +4.4
Sidney Ponson 27 FA-elig 332.9 3.0 +2.0
Rodrigo Lopez 28 arb 372.7 0.4 +4.3
Brian Roberts 26 arb 1592.6 0.3 +4.0
Erik Bedard 25 – 272.4 – –
David Newhan 30 – 952.1 – –
B.J. Surhoff 39 FA-elig 1001.6 0.8 +2.0
Larry Bigbie 26 arb 1391.5 0.3 +2.3
Daniel Cabrera 23 – 281.2 – –
Dave Borkowski 27 – 171.1 – –
Jerry Hairston Jr. 28 FA-elig 861.1 1.6 +0.2
Tim Raines Jr. 24 – 480.7 – –
Bruce Chen 27 – 80.6 0.7 +0.4
Rick Bauer 27 arb 230.6 0.3 +0.6
John Parrish 26 arb 560.4 0.3 +0.4
Buddy Groom 38 FA-elig 600.4 3.0 -2.4
Matt Riley 24 arb 140.3 0.3 +0.1
Geronimo Gil 28 – 120.2 – –
Rafael Palmeiro 39 FA-elig 1540.2 4.0 -3.7
Mike DeJean↔ NYM 33 FA-elig 370.2 1.0 -0.7
Eric DuBose 28 pre-arb 140.1 0.3 -0.1
Todd Williams 33 – 290.1 – –
David Segui 37 FA-elig 180.1 7.0 -6.9
Aaron Rakers 27 – 30.1 – –
Jorge Julio 25 arb 650.0 0.4 -0.3
Jason Grimsley↔ KCR 36 FA-elig 41-0.0 0.6 -0.6
Jack Cust 25 arb 1-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Val Majewski 23 – 9-0.0 – –
Chad Mottola 32 – 6-0.1 – –
John Maine 23 – 1-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Ken Huckaby↔ TEX 33 – 8-0.1 – –
Darnell McDonald 25 – 17-0.1 – –
José Bautista↔ KCR 23 pre-arb 16-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Denny Bautista↔ KCR 23 – 2-0.1 – –
Robert Machado 31 – 37-0.2 – –
Kurt Ainsworth 25 arb 7-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Eddy Rodriguez 22 – 29-0.2 – –
Jay Gibbons 27 arb 97-0.2 2.6 -3.0
Darwin Cubillan 31 – 7-0.2 – –
Keith Osik 35 FA-elig 11-0.4 0.5 -1.2
Jose Leon 27 – 31-0.5 – –
Karim Garcia↔ NYM 28 FA-elig 23-0.7 0.2 -1.4
Luis Matos 25 arb 89-1.0 1.0 -2.8
Luis Lopez 33 FA-elig 56-1.1 0.4 -2.2

Key additions (new vs 2003)

PlayerfWAR
Miguel Tejada6.0
Javy Lopez4.4
Erik Bedard2.4
David Newhan2.1
Daniel Cabrera1.2
Dave Borkowski1.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2003)

Player2003 fWAR
Jason Johnson2.1
Omar Daal1.3
Jeff Conine1.2
Pat Hentgen1.1
Deivi Cruz0.7
Kerry Ligtenberg0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2004 payroll
$44.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2004, 2004–2010. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
David Segui3714.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Javy Lopez3312.000$6.0M$7.5M$7.3MFREE AGENT
Miguel Tejada307.000$5.0M$11.0M$11.8M$13.8MFREE AGENT$3.7M
Rafael Palmeiro3918.000$4.0M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Sidney Ponson276.000$3.0M$8.5MFREE AGENT
Buddy Groom3812.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Jerry Hairston Jr.286.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Mike DeJean337.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
B.J. Surhoff3917.000$800k$1.1MFREE AGENT
Bruce Chen276.000$700k$550k$3.8MFREE AGENT
Jason Grimsley3615.000$562k$2.0MFREE AGENT
Keith Osik358.000$500kFREE AGENT
Luis Lopez3311.000$365kFREE AGENT
Karim Garcia289.000$216kFREE AGENT
Robert Machado318.000—FREE AGENT
Todd Williams339.000—$348k$775kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Jay Gibbons273.000$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Melvin Mora325.000$2.3MFREE AGENT
B.J. Ryan285.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Luis Matos254.000$975kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Julio253.000$385kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rodrigo Lopez284.000$365kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Roberts263.000$345kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Larry Bigbie263.000$340kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Bauer273.000$335kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Parrish264.000$320kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kurt Ainsworth253.000$315kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Riley245.000$310kFREE AGENT
Jack Cust253.000$305kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Borkowski275.000—FREE AGENT
David Newhan305.000—FREE AGENT
Ken Huckaby333.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Geronimo Gil283.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Eric DuBose282.000$305kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Maine230.000$151kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Bautista230.000$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Mottola32–—
Darnell McDonald250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Leon272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darwin Cubillan31–—
Tim Raines Jr.24–—
Erik Bedard252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Cabrera230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Denny Bautista230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddy Rodriguez22–—
Aaron Rakers27–—
Val Majewski23–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2004; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.