BAL⇄NYY

BALBAL Mike Flanagan net −$11.2M net +0.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $15M expected surplus · −$14.4M realized received 2.1 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2007 odds 3% → 3% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jaret WrightP·31y·R/R

+$2.8M+$2.1M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$14.4M 2.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.37/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.42/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$11.2M net -0.3

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $31M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 2.1 ± 4 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2007 odds 80% → 80% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris BrittonP·24y·R/R

+$7.2M+$7.2M± $31M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 2.1± 4 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#233 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.43/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.