RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Mike Flanagan

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.99× league · TAB -9.4
-9.4TAB — talent above budget27th/30
-11.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)28th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-8.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag28th/30
40%dead money %22nd/30
0.432win %26th/30
24.7roster fWAR25th/30
-27surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$75Mpayroll $M15th/30

Roster

CFCorey Patterson 134GDavid Newhan 19GNick Markakis 9G
LFBrandon Fahey 53GNick Markakis 26GDavid Newhan 17G
RFNick Markakis 127GJay Gibbons 44GLuis Matos 13G
SSMiguel Tejada 150GBrandon Fahey 17GChris Gomez 6G
2BBrian Roberts 137GChris Gomez 15GBrandon Fahey 13G
3BMelvin Mora 154GFernando Tatis 5GChris Gomez 5G
1BKevin Millar 98GJeff Conine 73GChris Gomez 27G
STARTERSErik Bedard 4.6WARDaniel Cabrera 2.5WARAdam Loewen 1.8WARRodrigo Lopez 1.6WARKris Benson 0.6WAR
CRamon Hernandez 135GDanny Ardoin 40GChris Widger 28G
DHJavy Lopez 53GJay Gibbons 46GKevin Millar 29G
BULLPEN★ Chris Ray 33svLaTroy Hawkins 16hTodd Williams 13hChris Britton 6hKurt Birkins 4hSendy Rleal 3hJulio Manon 2hJohn Halama 0h
CRamon Hernandez 135 · Danny Ardoin 40 · Chris Widger 28
1BKevin Millar 98 · Jeff Conine 73 · Chris Gomez 27
2BBrian Roberts 137 · Chris Gomez 15 · Brandon Fahey 13
3BMelvin Mora 154 · Fernando Tatis 5 · Chris Gomez 5
SSMiguel Tejada 150 · Brandon Fahey 17 · Chris Gomez 6
LFBrandon Fahey 53 · Nick Markakis 26 · David Newhan 17
CFCorey Patterson 134 · David Newhan 19 · Nick Markakis 9
RFNick Markakis 127 · Jay Gibbons 44 · Luis Matos 13
DHJavy Lopez 53 · Jay Gibbons 46 · Kevin Millar 29
SPErik Bedard 4.6 · Daniel Cabrera 2.5 · Adam Loewen 1.8 · Rodrigo Lopez 1.6 · Kris Benson 0.6
BP★ Chris Ray 33 · LaTroy Hawkins 16 · Todd Williams 13 · Chris Britton 6 · Kurt Birkins 4 · Sendy Rleal 3 · Julio Manon 2 · John Halama 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2006 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Miguel Tejada 32 FA-elig 1624.9 11.8 -2.0
Erik Bedard 27 arb 334.6 1.4 +7.7
Ramon Hernandez 30 FA-elig 1444.1 4.0 +4.2
Corey Patterson 26 FA-elig 1353.8 2.8 +4.9
Brian Roberts 28 arb 1383.1 3.1 +3.0
Daniel Cabrera 25 pre-arb 262.5 0.4 +4.7
Nick Markakis 22 pre-arb 1472.0 0.3 +3.6
Adam Loewen 22 – 221.8 – –
Rodrigo Lopez 30 FA-elig 361.6 3.8 -0.5
Melvin Mora 34 FA-elig 1551.2 4.3 -2.0
LaTroy Hawkins 33 FA-elig 600.7 4.4 -2.9
Chris Britton 23 – 520.7 – –
Kris Benson 31 FA-elig 300.6 8.3 -7.1
Chris Gomez 35 FA-elig 550.5 0.8 +0.2
Brandon Fahey 25 – 910.3 – –
Brian Burres 25 – 110.1 – –
Jeff Fiorentino 23 – 190.1 – –
Fernando Tatis 31 – 280.1 – –
Chris Ray 24 pre-arb 610.1 0.3 -0.1
Kurt Birkins 25 – 35-0.0 – –
Winston Abreu 29 – 7-0.0 – –
Howie Clark 32 – 7-0.1 – –
Jim Hoey 23 – 12-0.1 – –
Kevin Millar 34 FA-elig 132-0.1 2.1 -2.3
Raul Chavez 33 FA-elig 16-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Jay Gibbons 29 arb 90-0.1 4.2 -4.4
Jim Johnson 23 – 1-0.1 – –
Eric DuBose 30 arb 2-0.2 0.3 -0.6
Jim Brower↔ SDP 33 FA-elig 12-0.2 0.5 -0.8
Luis Terrero 26 – 27-0.2 – –
Danny Ardoin↔ COL 31 FA-elig 5-0.2 0.0 -0.4
Chris Widger↔ CHW 35 FA-elig 9-0.2 0.2 -0.6
Luis Matos↔ WSN 27 FA-elig 55-0.2 1.3 -1.8
Todd Williams 35 FA-elig 62-0.3 0.8 -1.3
Julio Manon 33 – 22-0.3 – –
John Halama 34 – 17-0.3 – –
Eddy Rodriguez 24 – 9-0.4 – –
Tim Byrdak 32 FA-elig 16-0.4 0.3 -1.2
Jeff Conine↔ PHI 40 FA-elig 114-0.5 1.4 -2.3
David Newhan 32 FA-elig 39-0.5 0.6 -1.5
Ed Rogers 27 – 17-0.5 – –
Javy Lopez↔ BOS 35 FA-elig 76-0.6 7.3 -8.5
Sendy Rleal 26 pre-arb 42-0.7 0.3 -1.6
Hayden Penn 21 – 6-0.7 – –
Bruce Chen 29 FA-elig 40-0.7 3.8 -5.2
Russ Ortiz↔ ARI 32 FA-elig 20-0.8 6.1 -7.6

Key additions (new vs 2005)

PlayerfWAR
Ramon Hernandez4.1
Corey Patterson3.8
Nick Markakis2.0
Adam Loewen1.8
LaTroy Hawkins0.7
Chris Britton0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2005)

Player2005 fWAR
B.J. Ryan2.6
Sidney Ponson1.0
Sal Fasano0.9
Eli Marrero0.3
Ramon Nivar0.2
John Parrish0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2006 payroll
$75.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2006, 2006–2012. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Miguel Tejada329.000$11.8M$13.8MFREE AGENT$3.7M
Kris Benson317.000$8.3MFREE AGENT
Javy Lopez3514.000$7.3MFREE AGENT
Russ Ortiz328.000$6.1MFREE AGENT
LaTroy Hawkins3311.000$4.4MFREE AGENT
Melvin Mora347.000$4.3M$7.8M$7.8M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Ramon Hernandez307.000$4.0M$6.5M$7.5MFREE AGENT
Bruce Chen298.000$3.8MFREE AGENT
Rodrigo Lopez306.000$3.8MFREE AGENT
Corey Patterson266.000$2.8M$4.3MFREE AGENT
Kevin Millar348.000$2.1M$2.8M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Jeff Conine4016.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Luis Matos276.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Chris Gomez3513.000$850k$674kFREE AGENT
Todd Williams3511.000$775kFREE AGENT
David Newhan327.000$550kFREE AGENT
Jim Brower337.000$467kFREE AGENT
Raul Chavez3310.000$400kFREE AGENT
Tim Byrdak328.000$335kFREE AGENT
Chris Widger3511.000$162kFREE AGENT
Danny Ardoin316.000$42kFREE AGENT
Fernando Tatis319.000—FREE AGENT
John Halama348.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Jay Gibbons295.000$4.2MFREE AGENT
Brian Roberts285.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Erik Bedard274.000$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric DuBose304.000$334kARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Terrero263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Daniel Cabrera252.000$385kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Ray241.000$335kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sendy Rleal260.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Markakis220.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Winston Abreu29–—
Ed Rogers27–—
Howie Clark32–—
Julio Manon33–—
Adam Loewen220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddy Rodriguez24–—
Brian Burres250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hayden Penn211.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kurt Birkins250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Fiorentino23–—
Brandon Fahey250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Hoey230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Britton23–—
Jim Johnson230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2006; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.