BAL⇄KCR

BALBAL Jim Beattie net −$4.8M net +0.3

received +$4.8M+$4.0M ± $14M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 1.8 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2005 odds 8% → 9% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eli MarreroC/OF·31y·R/R

+$4.9M+$4.2M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.8± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.26/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Allard Baird net +$4.8M net -0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2005 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pete Maestrales

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.