RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Mike Flanagan

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.04× league · TAB -8.7
-8.7TAB — talent above budget28th/30
-13.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)29th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars24th/30
-5.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag22nd/30
35%dead money %20th/30
0.426win %27th/30
26.1roster fWAR24th/30
-30surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$86Mpayroll $M13th/30

Roster

CFCorey Patterson 132GTike Redman 28GJay Payton 17G
LFJay Payton 123GJay Gibbons 43GFreddie Bynum Jr. 23G
RFNick Markakis 161GJay Payton 6GJay Gibbons 2G
SSMiguel Tejada 124GLuis Hernandez 23GBrandon Fahey 18G
2BBrian Roberts 154GBrandon Fahey 9GFreddie Bynum Jr. 4G
3BMelvin Mora 120GAubrey Huff 15GScott Moore 12G
1BKevin Millar 101GAubrey Huff 51GScott Moore 4G
STARTERSErik Bedard 5.1WARJeremy Guthrie 2.2WARDaniel Cabrera 1.6WARBrian Burres 1.0WARAdam Loewen 0.2WAR
CRamon Hernandez 104GPaul Bako 57GGustavo Molina 16G
DHAubrey Huff 80GKevin Millar 34GJay Gibbons 29G
BULLPEN★ Chris Ray 16svJamie Walker 21hChad Bradford 19hDanys Baez 14hPaul Shuey 6hVictor Santos 2hFernando Cabrera 1hRob Bell 1h
CRamon Hernandez 104 · Paul Bako 57 · Gustavo Molina 16
1BKevin Millar 101 · Aubrey Huff 51 · Scott Moore 4
2BBrian Roberts 154 · Brandon Fahey 9 · Freddie Bynum Jr. 4
3BMelvin Mora 120 · Aubrey Huff 15 · Scott Moore 12
SSMiguel Tejada 124 · Luis Hernandez 23 · Brandon Fahey 18
LFJay Payton 123 · Jay Gibbons 43 · Freddie Bynum Jr. 23
CFCorey Patterson 132 · Tike Redman 28 · Jay Payton 17
RFNick Markakis 161 · Jay Payton 6 · Jay Gibbons 2
DHAubrey Huff 80 · Kevin Millar 34 · Jay Gibbons 29
SPErik Bedard 5.1 · Jeremy Guthrie 2.2 · Daniel Cabrera 1.6 · Brian Burres 1.0 · Adam Loewen 0.2
BP★ Chris Ray 16 · Jamie Walker 21 · Chad Bradford 19 · Danys Baez 14 · Paul Shuey 6 · Victor Santos 2 · Fernando Cabrera 1 · Rob Bell 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2007 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Erik Bedard 28 arb 285.1 3.4 +7.6
Brian Roberts 29 FA-elig 1564.9 4.2 +6.3
Nick Markakis 23 pre-arb 1614.1 0.4 +8.3
Jeremy Guthrie 28 arb 322.2 0.4 +4.5
Melvin Mora 35 FA-elig 1262.2 7.8 -3.1
Miguel Tejada 33 FA-elig 1331.9 13.8 -9.7
Daniel Cabrera 26 arb 341.6 1.8 +1.7
Corey Patterson 27 FA-elig 1321.3 4.3 -1.5
Chad Bradford 32 FA-elig 781.1 3.2 -0.9
Ramon Hernandez 31 FA-elig 1061.0 6.5 -4.2
Brian Burres 26 – 371.0 – –
Jamie Walker 35 FA-elig 810.8 3.0 -1.2
Aubrey Huff 30 FA-elig 1510.8 4.0 -2.3
Kevin Millar 35 FA-elig 1400.6 2.8 -1.4
Chris Ray 25 pre-arb 430.4 0.4 +0.5
Luis Hernandez 23 – 300.4 – –
Freddie Bynum Jr. 27 pre-arb 700.4 0.4 +0.4
Chris Gomez↔ CLE 36 FA-elig 730.3 0.7 +0.0
Kurt Birkins 26 – 190.3 – –
Steve Trachsel↔ CHC 36 FA-elig 250.2 2.6 -2.1
Jon Leicester 28 – 100.2 – –
John Parrish↔ SEA 29 FA-elig 450.2 0.5 -0.1
Tike Redman 30 – 400.2 – –
Adam Loewen 23 pre-arb 60.2 1.0 -0.6
Scott Williamson 31 FA-elig 160.2 0.9 -0.5
J.R. House 27 – 190.0 – –
Jon Knott 28 – 70.0 – –
Jaret Wright 31 FA-elig 30.0 7.0 -7.0
Jim Johnson 24 – 10.0 0.4 -0.4
Adam Stern 27 – 20.0 – –
Gustavo Molina↔ CHW 25 pre-arb 7-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Alberto Castillo 37 – 11-0.0 – –
Todd Williams 36 – 14-0.0 – –
Garrett Olson 23 – 7-0.0 – –
Cory Doyne 25 – 5-0.1 – –
Jim Hoey 24 – 23-0.1 – –
Victor Zambrano↔ TOR 31 FA-elig 5-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Radhames Liz 23 – 9-0.1 – –
Fernando Cabrera↔ CLE 25 arb 9-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Paul Shuey 36 – 25-0.2 – –
Rob Bell 30 – 30-0.2 – –
Brandon Fahey 26 – 40-0.2 – –
Rocky Cherry↔ CHC 27 – 10-0.3 – –
Scott Moore↔ CHC 23 – 17-0.5 – –
Victor Santos↔ CIN 30 – 4-0.5 – –
Paul Bako 35 FA-elig 60-0.5 0.9 -2.0
Jay Payton 34 FA-elig 131-0.7 4.5 -5.9
Danys Baez 29 FA-elig 53-0.9 5.7 -7.6
Jay Gibbons 30 FA-elig 84-1.1 5.0 -7.4

Key additions (new vs 2006)

PlayerfWAR
Jeremy Guthrie2.2
Chad Bradford1.1
Jamie Walker0.8
Aubrey Huff0.8
Luis Hernandez0.4
Freddie Bynum Jr.0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2006)

Player2006 fWAR
Rodrigo Lopez1.6
LaTroy Hawkins0.7
Chris Britton0.7
Kris Benson0.6
Jeff Fiorentino0.1
Fernando Tatis0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2007 payroll
$85.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2007, 2007–2013. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Miguel Tejada3310.000$13.8MFREE AGENT$3.7M
Melvin Mora358.000$7.8M$7.8M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Jaret Wright3110.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Ramon Hernandez318.000$6.5M$7.5MFREE AGENT
Danys Baez296.000$5.7MFREE AGENT$7.2M
Jay Gibbons306.000$5.0MFREE AGENT
Jay Payton349.000$4.5M$5.0MFREE AGENT
Corey Patterson277.000$4.3MFREE AGENT
Brian Roberts296.000$4.2M$6.3M$8.0M$10.0M$10.0M$10.0M$10.0M
Aubrey Huff307.000$4.0M$8.0M$5.9MFREE AGENT
Chad Bradford329.000$3.2M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Jamie Walker3510.000$3.0M$4.5M$4.5MFREE AGENT
Kevin Millar359.000$2.8M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Steve Trachsel3614.000$2.6M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Paul Bako359.000$900kFREE AGENT
Scott Williamson318.000$900kFREE AGENT
Chris Gomez3614.000$674kFREE AGENT
John Parrish297.000$488kFREE AGENT
Victor Zambrano316.000$192kFREE AGENT
Alberto Castillo3712.000—FREE AGENT
Paul Shuey3613.000—FREE AGENT
Todd Williams3612.000—FREE AGENT
Rob Bell307.000—FREE AGENT
Victor Santos306.000—FREE AGENT
Tike Redman307.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Erik Bedard285.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Daniel Cabrera263.000$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Guthrie283.000$380kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Cabrera253.000$107kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Leicester283.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Adam Loewen231.000$967kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Ray252.000$420kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Markakis231.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Johnson241.000$380kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddie Bynum Jr.272.000$380kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gustavo Molina250.000$156kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.R. House27–—
Jon Knott28–—
Brian Burres261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Hernandez230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Stern272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Moore231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Doyne25–—
Kurt Birkins261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Fahey261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rocky Cherry270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Olson230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Hoey240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Radhames Liz230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2007; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.