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Orioles BAL

200769–93 (0.426)
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GM: Mike Flanagan

Overview

Ranks vs the 30 teams in 2007, or a custom range (defaults to every team-season since 1985, when our data starts).

to

Front Office

PoorAverageGreat
Value
Payroll $M
$86M
Surplus $M
-30
Win %
0.426
TAB
-8.7
WAB
-13.5
Roster composition
Roster fWAR
26.1
Dead money %
35%
Depth Players
5.0
Dead WAR
-5.7

Offense

PoorAverageGreat

Pitching & Defense

PoorAverageGreat

Roster

2007 depth chart — stacked by playing time

C

RRamon Hernandez104
LPaul Bako57
RAlberto Castillo11
RJ.R. House9
RGustavo Molina⇄7

1B

RKevin Millar101
LAubrey Huff51
LScott Moore⇄4
RJ.R. House1
RRamon Hernandez1

2B

BBrian Roberts154
LBrandon Fahey9
LFreddie Bynum Jr.4
BLuis Hernandez2

3B

RMelvin Mora120
LAubrey Huff15
LScott Moore⇄12
RJ.R. House2
LBrandon Fahey2

SS

RMiguel Tejada124
BLuis Hernandez23
LBrandon Fahey18
LFreddie Bynum Jr.15
RChris Gomez⇄10

LF

RJay Payton123
LJay Gibbons43
LFreddie Bynum Jr.23
LTike Redman9
LBrandon Fahey7
RKevin Millar3
RJon Knott2
BLuis Hernandez1
LScott Moore⇄1

CF

LCorey Patterson132
LTike Redman28
RJay Payton17
LFreddie Bynum Jr.6
LAdam Stern2

RF

LNick Markakis161
RJay Payton6
LJay Gibbons2

DH

LAubrey Huff80
RKevin Millar34
LJay Gibbons29
RMiguel Tejada8
LFreddie Bynum Jr.7
RJ.R. House4
LBrandon Fahey3
RJon Knott3
RMelvin Mora2
BLuis Hernandez1

Starters

LErik Bedard5.1 WAR
RJeremy Guthrie2.2 WAR
RDaniel Cabrera1.6 WAR
LBrian Burres1.0 WAR
LKurt Birkins0.3 WAR
RSteve Trachsel⇄0.2 WAR
RJon Leicester0.2 WAR
LAdam Loewen0.2 WAR
RJaret Wright0.0 WAR
LGarrett Olson-0.0 WAR
RVictor Zambrano⇄-0.1 WAR
RRadhames Liz-0.1 WAR
RVictor Santos⇄-0.5 WAR

Bullpen

★ RChris Ray16 sv
LJamie Walker21 h
RChad Bradford19 h
RDanys Baez14 h
RPaul Shuey6 h
RJim Hoey4 h
RRob Bell1 h
LJohn Parrish⇄0 h

Each position shows its top 3 by games (top = starter) — click "+more" for the rest. The letter is bats/throws; ⇄ marks a player traded mid-season. Starters are ranked by WAR, bullpen by holds; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

Key additions (new vs 2006)

PlayerfWAR
Jeremy Guthrie2.2
Chad Bradford1.1
Jamie Walker0.8
Aubrey Huff0.8
Luis Hernandez0.4
Freddie Bynum Jr.0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2006)

Player2006 fWAR
Rodrigo Lopez1.6
LaTroy Hawkins0.7
Chris Britton0.7
Kris Benson0.6
Jeff Fiorentino0.1
Fernando Tatis0.1

Contract Value

WAR translated into tier-adjusted market value, then compared with what the player was paid by Orioles. Guaranteed contracts from the 2015-present contract-data period use the known contract period through 2007; everyone else is shown as a 2007 season snapshot.

PlayerPeriodfWARTier Market $MPaid $MSurplus $M$ / WARTierContract
Erik Bedard 2007 +5.1 +102.3 3.4 +98.9 $0.7M 2.50× –
Nick Markakis 2007 +4.1 +58.2 0.4 +57.8 $0.1M 1.79× –
Brian Roberts 2007 +4.9 +47.1 4.2 +42.9 $0.9M 1.20× –
Jeremy Guthrie 2007 +2.2 +26.7 0.4 +26.3 $0.2M 1.49× –
Daniel Cabrera 2007 +1.6 +19.5 1.8 +17.7 $1.1M 1.49× –
Chad Bradford 2007 +1.1 +11.4 3.2 +8.3 $3.0M 1.34× –
Melvin Mora 2007 +2.2 +14.7 7.8 +6.9 $3.6M 0.85× –
Jamie Walker 2007 +0.8 +9.0 3.0 +6.0 $3.6M 1.34× –
Corey Patterson 2007 +1.3 +8.8 4.3 +4.5 $3.3M 0.83× –
Chris Ray 2007 +0.4 +4.3 0.4 +3.9 $1.0M 1.34× –
Freddie Bynum Jr. 2007 +0.4 +2.4 0.4 +2.0 $1.0M 0.83× –
Chris Gomez↔ 2007 +0.3 +1.6 0.7 +0.9 $2.1M 0.61× –
John Parrish↔ 2007 +0.2 +1.1 0.5 +0.6 $2.4M 0.67× –
Adam Loewen 2007 +0.2 +1.5 1.0 +0.5 $5.3M 1.02× –
Aubrey Huff 2007 +0.8 +4.3 4.0 +0.3 $5.2M 0.69× –
Kevin Millar 2007 +0.6 +2.9 2.8 +0.1 $4.3M 0.56× –
Gustavo Molina↔ 2007 -0.0 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 – 0.52× –
Miguel Tejada 2007 +1.9 +13.5 13.8 -0.3 $7.3M 0.89× –
Jim Johnson 2007 +0.0 +0.0 0.4 -0.4 $78.4M 0.67× –
Steve Trachsel↔ 2007 +0.2 +1.9 2.6 -0.7 $11.1M 1.02× –
Victor Zambrano↔ 2007 -0.1 -0.5 0.2 -0.7 – 0.67× –
Fernando Cabrera↔ 2007 -0.1 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 – 0.67× –
Ramon Hernandez 2007 +1.0 +4.4 6.5 -2.1 $6.2M 0.52× –
Paul Bako 2007 -0.5 -2.0 0.9 -2.9 – 0.52× –
Jaret Wright 2007 +0.0 +0.0 7.0 -7.0 $1195.4M 1.02× –
Jay Payton 2007 -0.7 -4.4 4.5 -8.9 – 0.83× –
Jay Gibbons 2007 -1.1 -7.5 5.0 -12.5 – 0.83× –
Danys Baez 2007 -0.9 -9.5 5.7 -15.1 – 1.34× –
Scott Williamson 2007 +0.2 +0.9 0.9 +0.0 $5.1M 0.67× –
Adam Stern 2007 +0.0 +0.0 – – – 0.83× –
Alberto Castillo 2007 -0.0 -0.1 – – – 0.52× –
Brandon Fahey 2007 -0.2 -1.1 – – – 0.61× –
Brian Burres 2007 +1.0 +5.2 – – – 0.67× –
Cory Doyne 2007 -0.1 -0.5 – – – 0.67× –
Garrett Olson 2007 -0.0 -0.4 – – – 1.02× –
J.R. House 2007 +0.0 +0.2 – – – 0.52× –
Jim Hoey 2007 -0.1 -0.5 – – – 0.67× –
Jon Knott 2007 +0.0 +0.2 – – – 0.69× –
Jon Leicester 2007 +0.2 +1.7 – – – 1.02× –
Kurt Birkins 2007 +0.3 +1.6 – – – 0.67× –
Luis Hernandez 2007 +0.4 +1.8 – – – 0.61× –
Paul Shuey 2007 -0.2 -1.0 – – – 0.67× –
Radhames Liz 2007 -0.1 -0.7 – – – 0.67× –
Rob Bell 2007 -0.2 -1.0 – – – 0.67× –
Rocky Cherry↔ 2007 -0.3 -1.6 – – – 0.67× –
Scott Moore↔ 2007 -0.5 -2.1 – – – 0.58× –
Tike Redman 2007 +0.2 +1.3 – – – 0.83× –
Todd Williams 2007 -0.0 -0.2 – – – 0.67× –
Victor Santos↔ 2007 -0.5 -3.8 – – – 1.02× –
Total—+26.0+310.886.1+226.0—

Trades

Every graded 2007 deal involving the Orioles — best expected value first. Surplus is realized value in $M; 5 total.

2007 · BAL / HOU
BAL · Mike Flanagan +$70.4M
Matt Albers, Dennis Sarfate, Troy Patton, Luke Scott, Mike Costanzo
HOU · Tal Smith −$70.4M
Miguel Tejada
BAL came out ahead by $70.4M
2007 · CHC / BAL
CHC · Jim Hendry +$3.2M
Steve Trachsel
BAL · Mike Flanagan −$3.2M
Rocky Cherry, Scott Moore
CHC came out ahead by $3.2M
2007 · BAL / SEA
BAL · Mike Flanagan +$0.8M
Sebastien Boucher
SEA · Bill Bavasi −$0.8M
John Parrish
BAL came out ahead by $0.8M
2007 · BOS / BAL
BOS · Theo Epstein +$0.8M
Cory Keylor
BAL · Mike Flanagan −$0.8M
Alberto Castillo
BOS came out ahead by $0.8M
2007 · BAL / COL
BAL · Mike Flanagan +$3.2M
Jim Miller, Jason Burch
COL · Daniel O'Dowd −$3.2M
Rodrigo López
BAL came out ahead by $3.2M

Current & Historical Payroll

2007 payroll
$85.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2007, 2007–2013. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Miguel Tejada3310.000$13.8MFREE AGENT$3.7M
Melvin Mora358.000$7.8M$7.8M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Jaret Wright3110.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Ramon Hernandez318.000$6.5M$7.5MFREE AGENT
Danys Baez296.000$5.7MFREE AGENT$7.2M
Jay Gibbons306.000$5.0MFREE AGENT
Jay Payton349.000$4.5M$5.0MFREE AGENT
Corey Patterson277.000$4.3MFREE AGENT
Brian Roberts296.000$4.2M$6.3M$8.0M$10.0M$10.0M$10.0M$10.0M
Aubrey Huff307.000$4.0M$8.0M$5.9MFREE AGENT
Chad Bradford329.000$3.2M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Jamie Walker3510.000$3.0M$4.5M$4.5MFREE AGENT
Kevin Millar359.000$2.8M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Steve Trachsel3614.000$2.6M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Paul Bako359.000$900kFREE AGENT
Scott Williamson318.000$900kFREE AGENT
Chris Gomez3614.000$674kFREE AGENT
John Parrish297.000$488kFREE AGENT
Victor Zambrano316.000$192kFREE AGENT
Alberto Castillo3712.000—FREE AGENT
Paul Shuey3613.000—FREE AGENT
Todd Williams3612.000—FREE AGENT
Rob Bell307.000—FREE AGENT
Victor Santos306.000—FREE AGENT
Tike Redman307.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Erik Bedard285.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Daniel Cabrera263.000$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Guthrie283.000$380kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Cabrera253.000$107kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Leicester283.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Adam Loewen231.000$967kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Ray252.000$420kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Markakis231.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Johnson241.000$380kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddie Bynum Jr.272.000$380kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gustavo Molina250.000$156kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.R. House27–—
Jon Knott28–—
Brian Burres261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Hernandez230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Stern272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Moore231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Doyne25–—
Kurt Birkins261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Fahey261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rocky Cherry270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Olson230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Hoey240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Radhames Liz230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

How each 2007 acquisition stacked onto Orioles's playoff-odds curve. The side table is ranked by PPA.

Rosternomics — front-office performance, roster value, and transaction history. Follow @rosternomics on X.
Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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