RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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GM: Erik Neander

Overview

WINDOW → steady
cheap & winning · year 11 in this regime · payroll 0.63× league · TAB +6.1
+6.1TAB — talent above budget9th/30
+4.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)13th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/30
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag9th/30
31%dead money %11th/30
0.494win %13th/30
34.6roster fWAR12th/30
+35surplus $M (value vs cost)5th/30
$82Mpayroll $M26th/30

Roster

CFKevin Kiermaier 97GMallex Smith 51GPeter Bourjos 37G
LFCorey Dickerson 93GPeter Bourjos 41GMallex Smith 24G
RFSteven Souza Jr. 138GPeter Bourjos 14GMallex Smith 9G
SSAdeiny Hechavarría 96GDaniel Robertson 24GDanny Espinosa 4G
2BBrad Miller 98GDanny Espinosa 78GDaniel Robertson 41G
3BEvan Longoria 142GTrevor Plouffe 64GDaniel Robertson 17G
1BLogan Morrison 126GLucas Duda 93GRickie Weeks Jr. 12G
STARTERSChris Archer 4.5WARAlex Cobb 2.1WARBlake Snell 1.8WARJake Faria 1.3WARAustin Pruitt 0.6WAR
CWilson Ramos 62GJesús Sucre 61GDerek Norris 53G
DHCorey Dickerson 55GLucas Duda 24GLogan Morrison 17G
BULLPEN★ Alex Colomé 47svTommy Hunter 26hDan Jennings 15hSteve Cishek 15hSergio Romo 11hChase Whitley 7hJosé Alvarado 7hJumbo Diaz 6h
CWilson Ramos 62 · Jesús Sucre 61 · Derek Norris 53
1BLogan Morrison 126 · Lucas Duda 93 · Rickie Weeks Jr. 12
2BBrad Miller 98 · Danny Espinosa 78 · Daniel Robertson 41
3BEvan Longoria 142 · Trevor Plouffe 64 · Daniel Robertson 17
SSAdeiny Hechavarría 96 · Daniel Robertson 24 · Danny Espinosa 4
LFCorey Dickerson 93 · Peter Bourjos 41 · Mallex Smith 24
CFKevin Kiermaier 97 · Mallex Smith 51 · Peter Bourjos 37
RFSteven Souza Jr. 138 · Peter Bourjos 14 · Mallex Smith 9
DHCorey Dickerson 55 · Lucas Duda 24 · Logan Morrison 17
SPChris Archer 4.5 · Alex Cobb 2.1 · Blake Snell 1.8 · Jake Faria 1.3 · Austin Pruitt 0.6
BP★ Alex Colomé 47 · Tommy Hunter 26 · Dan Jennings 15 · Steve Cishek 15 · Sergio Romo 11 · Chase Whitley 7 · José Alvarado 7 · Jumbo Diaz 6

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2017 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Chris Archer 28 arb 344.5 4.9 +10.4
Steven Souza Jr. 28 arb 1483.7 0.5 +11.8
Kevin Kiermaier 27 arb 983.5 3.2 +8.6
Logan Morrison 29 FA-elig 1493.0 2.5 +7.5
Corey Dickerson 28 arb 1502.4 3.0 +5.1
Evan Longoria 31 FA-elig 1562.4 13.0 -5.0
Alex Cobb 29 FA-elig 292.1 4.2 +3.0
Blake Snell 24 pre-arb 241.8 0.5 +5.4
Jake Faria 23 – 161.3 0.3 +4.0
Adeiny Hechavarría↔ MIA 28 arb 771.2 3.5 +0.7
Alex Colomé 28 arb 651.2 0.5 +3.5
Tommy Hunter 30 FA-elig 611.1 1.4 +2.5
Tim Beckham↔ BAL 27 arb 871.1 0.6 +3.1
Colby Rasmus 30 FA-elig 371.0 5.0 -1.7
Jesús Sucre 29 arb 631.0 0.6 +2.6
Steve Cishek↔ SEA 31 FA-elig 260.7 3.2 -0.7
José Alvarado 22 – 350.7 0.3 +2.2
Chase Whitley 28 pre-arb 410.6 0.4 +1.8
Sergio Romo↔ LAD 34 FA-elig 250.6 1.4 +0.7
Wilson Ramos 29 FA-elig 640.6 4.0 -2.0
Erasmo Ramírez↔ SEA 27 arb 260.6 2.2 -0.3
Austin Pruitt 27 pre-arb 310.6 0.5 +1.4
Mallex Smith 24 pre-arb 810.6 0.5 +1.3
Matt Andriese 27 pre-arb 180.5 0.5 +1.1
Brad Boxberger 29 arb 300.3 1.6 -0.5
Daniel Robertson 23 pre-arb 750.3 0.5 +0.4
Shane Peterson 29 pre-arb 300.3 0.2 +0.7
Curt Casali 28 pre-arb 90.2 0.1 +0.7
Danny Farquhar↔ CHW 30 FA-elig 370.2 0.6 -0.1
Jumbo Diaz 33 arb 310.1 0.6 -0.1
Chaz Roe↔ ATL 30 arb 90.1 0.5 -0.2
Jake Odorizzi 27 arb 280.1 4.1 -3.8
Taylor Featherston 27 pre-arb 170.1 0.1 +0.1
Derek Norris 28 arb 530.1 1.2 -1.0
Andrew Kittredge 27 – 150.0 0.1 -0.0
Rickie Weeks Jr. 34 FA-elig 370.0 1.5 -1.4
Hunter Wood 23 – 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Brad Miller 27 arb 1100.0 3.6 -3.5
César Puello↔ ANA 26 pre-arb 16-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Lucas Duda↔ NYM 31 FA-elig 52-0.0 3.0 -3.0
Diego Moreno 29 – 5-0.0 0.2 -0.4
Peter Bourjos 30 FA-elig 100-0.1 1.4 -1.5
Chih-Wei Hu 23 – 6-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Justin Marks 29 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Dan Jennings↔ CHW 30 arb 29-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Danny Espinosa↔ ANA 30 FA-elig 8-0.1 0.5 -0.9
José De León 24 – 1-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Ryan Garton↔ SEA 27 – 7-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Adam Kolarek 28 – 12-0.3 0.1 -1.3
Ryne Stanek 25 – 21-0.4 0.2 -1.4
Michael Martinez↔ CLE 34 FA-elig 13-0.5 0.3 -1.9
Xavier Cedeño 30 FA-elig 9-0.9 1.3 -4.4
Trevor Plouffe↔ OAK 31 FA-elig 42-1.0 2.2 -5.5

Key additions (new vs 2016)

PlayerfWAR
Jake Faria1.3
Adeiny Hechavarría1.2
Tommy Hunter1.1
Colby Rasmus1.0
Jesús Sucre1.0
Steve Cishek0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2016)

Player2016 fWAR
Logan Forsythe2.8
Drew Smyly1.8
Steve Pearce1.5
Matt Moore1.0
Brandon Guyer0.7
Nick Franklin0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2017 payroll
$82.0M
2018 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2017, 2017–2023. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2017; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Evan Longoria318.170$13.0MFREE AGENT
Colby Rasmus308.000$5.0MFREE AGENT
Wilson Ramos296.047$4.0MFREE AGENT
Logan Morrison296.069$2.5MFREE AGENT
Rickie Weeks Jr.3414.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Tommy Hunter307.090$1.4MFREE AGENT
Sergio Romo348.097$1.4MFREE AGENT
Peter Bourjos306.062$1.4MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Chris Archer283.156$4.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Cobb295.061$4.2MFREE AGENT
Jake Odorizzi273.042$4.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Miller273.094$3.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adeiny Hechavarría284.060$3.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Cishek315.143$3.2MFREE AGENT
Corey Dickerson283.101$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Duda315.137$3.0MFREE AGENT
Trevor Plouffe315.162$2.2MFREE AGENT
Erasmo Ramírez273.157$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Boxberger293.109$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Cedeño303.060$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Norris285.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Jumbo Diaz333.000$558kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Souza Jr.283.000$547kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Jennings303.171$527kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Espinosa305.113$467kFREE AGENT
Michael Martinez343.140$279kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Kevin Kiermaier272.131$3.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Farquhar302.170$640kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Sucre292.137$630kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Beckham272.134$562kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Colomé282.118$548kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Andriese271.071$548kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Snell240.110$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chaz Roe301.136$540kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mallex Smith241.000$540kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José De León241.000$536kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Robertson230.000$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Pruitt270.000$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase Whitley282.125$427kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Faria230.000$330kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Alvarado220.000$269kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Diego Moreno290.072$228kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryne Stanek250.000$193kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Peterson290.126$152kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Featherston271.025$123kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
César Puello260.019$121kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Kittredge270.000$117kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Kolarek280.000$102kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curt Casali281.169$91kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chih-Wei Hu230.000$82kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Garton270.097$32kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Marks290.031$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Wood230.000$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2017; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.