CLE⇄TBR

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net +$3.2M net +0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2017 odds 98% → 98% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$3.2M net -0.5

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2017 odds 19% → 17% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Michael Martínez2B/OF·34y·B/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.2/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

-0.32/yr blended

Horizon

2.2 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.