WSN⇄TBR

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net +$1.6M net +0.4

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $23M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2017 odds 73% → 75% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Enny RomeroP·26y·R/L

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$1.6M net -0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2017 odds 18% → 17% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeffrey Rosa

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.