LAD⇄TBR

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$4.8M net +0.3

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $11M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 1.8 ± 1 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2017 odds 90% → 91% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Logan Forsythe2B·30y·R/R

+$7.5M+$7.5M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 1.8± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.6/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.76/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$4.8M net -0.3

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $26M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2017 odds 20% → 17% (-2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José De LeónP·24y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#724 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.7/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.08/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.