RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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GM: Erik Neander

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 12 in this regime · payroll 0.39× league · TAB +20.7
+20.7TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+20.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-2.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/30
38%dead money %18th/30
0.556win %10th/30
43.3roster fWAR6th/30
+96surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$51Mpayroll $M30th/30

Roster

CFTommy Pham 94GKevin Kiermaier 88GMallex Smith 71G
LFMallex Smith 38GTommy Pham 37GRob Refsnyder 23G
RFCarlos Gómez 100GMallex Smith 47GAustin Meadows 20G
SSWilly Adames 75GDaniel Robertson 29GJoey Wendle 10G
2BJoey Wendle 101GDaniel Robertson 39GBrandon Lowe 28G
3BMatt Duffy 125GJoey Wendle 20GDaniel Robertson 19G
1BJake Bauers 76GC.J. Cron 61GJi Man Choi 3G
STARTERSBlake Snell 4.8WARRyne Stanek 1.2WARYonny Chirinos 1.2WARDiego Castillo 1.1WARRyan Yarbrough 0.8WAR
CJesús Sucre 71GMichael Pérez 24GNick Ciuffo 16G
DHC.J. Cron 70GJi Man Choi 50GRob Refsnyder 9G
BULLPEN★ José Alvarado 8svChaz Roe 31hAdam Kolarek 11hJaime Schultz 2hAndrew Kittredge 1hAustin Pruitt 0hVidal Nuño 0hJalen Beeks 0h
CJesús Sucre 71 · Michael Pérez 24 · Nick Ciuffo 16
1BJake Bauers 76 · C.J. Cron 61 · Ji Man Choi 3
2BJoey Wendle 101 · Daniel Robertson 39 · Brandon Lowe 28
3BMatt Duffy 125 · Joey Wendle 20 · Daniel Robertson 19
SSWilly Adames 75 · Daniel Robertson 29 · Joey Wendle 10
LFMallex Smith 38 · Tommy Pham 37 · Rob Refsnyder 23
CFTommy Pham 94 · Kevin Kiermaier 88 · Mallex Smith 71
RFCarlos Gómez 100 · Mallex Smith 47 · Austin Meadows 20
DHC.J. Cron 70 · Ji Man Choi 50 · Rob Refsnyder 9
SPBlake Snell 4.8 · Ryne Stanek 1.2 · Yonny Chirinos 1.2 · Diego Castillo 1.1 · Ryan Yarbrough 0.8
BP★ José Alvarado 8 · Chaz Roe 31 · Adam Kolarek 11 · Jaime Schultz 2 · Andrew Kittredge 1 · Austin Pruitt 0 · Vidal Nuño 0 · Jalen Beeks 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Blake Snell 25 pre-arb 314.8 0.6 +15.9
Joey Wendle 28 pre-arb 1393.9 0.5 +12.9
Mallex Smith 25 pre-arb 1413.2 0.6 +10.4
Daniel Robertson 24 pre-arb 882.8 0.5 +9.1
Tommy Pham↔ STL 30 arb 392.7 0.2 +8.9
Matt Duffy 27 arb 1322.4 0.9 +7.4
Wilson Ramos↔ PHI 30 FA-elig 782.4 6.0 +2.1
C.J. Cron 28 arb 1402.3 2.3 +5.6
José Alvarado 23 pre-arb 702.1 0.5 +6.5
Chris Archer↔ PIT 29 FA-elig 171.8 4.0 +2.0
Kevin Kiermaier 28 arb 881.5 5.7 -0.4
Willy Adames 22 – 851.2 0.3 +3.8
Ryne Stanek 26 pre-arb 591.2 0.4 +3.7
Yonny Chirinos 24 pre-arb 181.2 0.5 +3.5
Diego Castillo 24 – 431.1 0.3 +3.3
Ji Man Choi↔ MIL 27 pre-arb 491.1 0.7 +2.9
Adam Kolarek 29 pre-arb 310.9 0.2 +2.8
Brandon Lowe 23 – 430.9 0.2 +2.8
Ryan Yarbrough 26 pre-arb 380.8 0.5 +2.3
Nathan Eovaldi↔ BOS 28 FA-elig 110.7 1.0 +1.5
Denard Span↔ SEA 34 FA-elig 430.6 3.5 -1.4
Matt Andriese↔ ARI 28 – 270.6 0.4 +1.7
Alex Colomé↔ SEA 29 arb 230.6 1.7 +0.2
Tyler Glasnow↔ PIT 24 pre-arb 110.5 0.1 +1.7
Sergio Romo 35 FA-elig 730.5 2.5 -0.9
Hunter Wood 24 pre-arb 310.5 0.3 +1.3
Wilmer Font↔ LAD 28 FA-elig 90.4 0.3 +1.1
Carlos Gómez 32 FA-elig 1180.4 4.0 -2.6
Adeiny Hechavarría↔ NYY 29 FA-elig 610.4 3.8 -2.6
Johnny Field↔ MIN 26 – 630.3 0.3 +0.8
Christian Arroyo 23 pre-arb 200.3 0.2 +0.8
Anthony Banda 24 pre-arb 30.3 0.0 +0.8
Chaz Roe 31 pre-arb 610.2 0.7 +0.1
Andrew Velazquez 23 – 130.2 0.1 +0.5
Michael Pérez 25 – 240.2 0.2 +0.4
Austin Pruitt 28 pre-arb 230.2 0.3 +0.3
Brad Miller↔ MIL 28 arb 480.1 2.9 -2.5
Chih-Wei Hu 24 pre-arb 50.1 0.1 +0.2
Jonny Venters↔ ATL 33 – 220.1 0.1 +0.1
Adam Moore 34 pre-arb 80.1 0.1 +0.1
Austin Meadows↔ PIT 23 – 100.1 0.0 +0.2
Jake Faria 24 pre-arb 170.1 0.5 -0.3
Jake Bauers 22 – 960.0 0.3 -0.2
Brandon Snyder 31 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Justin Williams 22 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Ryan Weber 27 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Jalen Beeks↔ BOS 24 – 12-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Vidal Nuño 30 arb 17-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Nick Ciuffo 23 – 16-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Rob Refsnyder 27 pre-arb 40-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Jaime Schultz 27 – 22-0.2 0.2 -1.0
Hoby Milner↔ PHI 27 pre-arb 4-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Andrew Kittredge 28 pre-arb 33-0.4 0.3 -1.6
Jesús Sucre 30 arb 73-0.9 0.9 -4.1

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Joey Wendle3.9
Tommy Pham2.7
Matt Duffy2.4
C.J. Cron2.3
Willy Adames1.2
Yonny Chirinos1.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Steven Souza Jr.3.7
Logan Morrison3.0
Corey Dickerson2.4
Alex Cobb2.1
Tommy Hunter1.1
Tim Beckham1.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$50.8M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Wilson Ramos307.047$6.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Gómez3210.141$4.0MFREE AGENT
Denard Span349.111$3.5MFREE AGENT
Sergio Romo359.097$2.5MFREE AGENT
Nathan Eovaldi286.013$957kCLUBFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Kevin Kiermaier283.131$5.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Archer294.156$4.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Adeiny Hechavarría295.060$3.8MFREE AGENT
Brad Miller285.000$2.9MFREE AGENT
C.J. Cron283.097$2.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Colomé293.118$1.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Duffy273.059$930kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Sucre303.137$925kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vidal Nuño303.053$384kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonny Venters335.000$120kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (39)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Chaz Roe312.094$720kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ji Man Choi272.000$683kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Snell251.072$558kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mallex Smith251.125$553kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Alvarado230.093$550kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Robertson240.156$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Wendle280.088$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yonny Chirinos240.000$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Yarbrough260.000$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Faria240.112$498kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryne Stanek260.067$419kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Andriese282.071$354kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Diego Castillo240.000$346kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Bauers220.000$340kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Wood240.001$302kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnny Field26–$290k
Andrew Kittredge280.040$289kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willy Adames220.000$272kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Pruitt280.132$261kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilmer Font280.085$261kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Refsnyder271.106$240kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Kolarek290.035$226kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jaime Schultz270.000$199kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Pérez250.000$196kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Arroyo230.042$179kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Lowe230.000$170kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jalen Beeks240.000$168kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Pham302.107$162kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hoby Milner270.104$157kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Glasnow240.158$136kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Moore342.115$108kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Velazquez230.000$85kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Ciuffo230.000$82kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chih-Wei Hu240.028$67kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Banda240.037$38kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Meadows230.000$30kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Weber271.047$15kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Snyder312.058$12kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Williams220.000$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.