SFG⇄TBR

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net +$23.2M net +5.7

received +$21.6M+$21.6M ± $11M expected surplus · +$20.0M realized received 2.6 ± 1 expected · 6.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2018 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Evan Longoria3B·32y·R/R

+$21.4M+$21.4M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$20.0M 2.6± 1 exp WARrealized 6.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.7/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

2.65/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$23.2M net -5.7

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $41M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 4.2 ± 5 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2018 odds 58% → 60% (+2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt KrookP·23y·L/L

+$9.4M+$9.4M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.7± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#35 overall draft pick → 0.30/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Stephen WoodsP·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#188 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Denard SpanOF·34y·L/L

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.21/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Christian Arroyo2B·23y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#25 overall draft pick → 0.41/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.09/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.