BAL⇄TBR

BALBAL Dan Duquette net +$3.2M net +1.5

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $42M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 3.7 ± 5 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2017 odds 0% → 1% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim BeckhamSS·27y·R/R

+$13.0M+$13.0M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 3.7± 5 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.99/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.92/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$3.2M net -1.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2017 odds 23% → 17% (-6.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tobias MyersP·18y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#181 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.