TBR⇄SEA

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$1.6M net +0.0

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $11M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2017 odds 14% → 17% (+2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jesús SucreC·29y·R/R

+$5.8M+$5.8M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.63/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.87 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$1.6M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2017 odds 12% → 10% (-2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.