TBR⇄OAK

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$56.0M net +9.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $15M expected surplus · +$53.6M realized received 1.5 ± 2 expected · 8.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2018 odds 38% → 60% (+22.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joey Wendle2B/3B/SS·28y·L/R

+$2.2M+$2.2M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$53.6M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized 8.7

Prior

#203 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$56.0M net -9.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2018 odds 78% → 59% (-19.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jonah HeimC·23y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#129 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.