NYM⇄TBR

NYMNYM Sandy Alderson net +$2.4M net +0.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Drew SmithP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

#99 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$2.4M net -0.6

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $10M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.3 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Lucas Duda1B/OF·31y·L/R

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.3± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.34/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.