RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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GM: Matt Silverman

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 10 in this regime · payroll 0.46× league · TAB +3.3
+3.3TAB — talent above budget11th/30
-3.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars24th/30
-5.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
36%dead money %17th/30
0.420win %27th/30
28.1roster fWAR20th/30
+33surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$58Mpayroll $M30th/30

Roster

CFKevin Kiermaier 104GDesmond Jennings 30GMikie Mahtook 23G
LFCorey Dickerson 76GDesmond Jennings 33GMikie Mahtook 26G
RFSteven Souza Jr. 111GMikie Mahtook 18GJaff Decker 13G
SSAlexei Ramirez 127GBrad Miller 105GTim Beckham 25G
2BLogan Forsythe 118GTim Beckham 19GNick Franklin 8G
3BEvan Longoria 152GMatt Duffy 70GTim Beckham 7G
1BLogan Morrison 83GBrad Miller 39GRichie Shaffer 11G
STARTERSChris Archer 2.9WARJake Odorizzi 1.9WARMatt Andriese 1.9WARBlake Snell 1.8WARDrew Smyly 1.8WAR
CCurt Casali 76GBobby Wilson 75GHank Conger 47G
DHCorey Dickerson 61GLogan Morrison 17GBrandon Guyer 10G
BULLPEN★ Alex Colomé 37svXavier Cedeño 19hErasmo Ramírez 15hDanny Farquhar 7hEnny Romero 6hKevin Jepsen 5hDana Eveland 3hRyan Garton 2h
CCurt Casali 76 · Bobby Wilson 75 · Hank Conger 47
1BLogan Morrison 83 · Brad Miller 39 · Richie Shaffer 11
2BLogan Forsythe 118 · Tim Beckham 19 · Nick Franklin 8
3BEvan Longoria 152 · Matt Duffy 70 · Tim Beckham 7
SSAlexei Ramirez 127 · Brad Miller 105 · Tim Beckham 25
LFCorey Dickerson 76 · Desmond Jennings 33 · Mikie Mahtook 26
CFKevin Kiermaier 104 · Desmond Jennings 30 · Mikie Mahtook 23
RFSteven Souza Jr. 111 · Mikie Mahtook 18 · Jaff Decker 13
DHCorey Dickerson 61 · Logan Morrison 17 · Brandon Guyer 10
SPChris Archer 2.9 · Jake Odorizzi 1.9 · Matt Andriese 1.9 · Blake Snell 1.8 · Drew Smyly 1.8
BP★ Alex Colomé 37 · Xavier Cedeño 19 · Erasmo Ramírez 15 · Danny Farquhar 7 · Enny Romero 6 · Kevin Jepsen 5 · Dana Eveland 3 · Ryan Garton 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Evan Longoria 30 FA-elig 1604.2 11.5 +2.3
Kevin Kiermaier 26 arb 1053.8 0.5 +12.0
Chris Archer 27 arb 332.9 2.9 +6.4
Logan Forsythe 29 arb 1272.8 2.2 +6.9
Matt Andriese 26 pre-arb 291.9 0.4 +5.8
Jake Odorizzi 26 arb 331.9 0.5 +5.5
Drew Smyly 27 arb 301.8 3.8 +2.1
Blake Snell 23 – 191.8 0.3 +5.5
Steve Pearce↔ BAL 33 FA-elig 601.5 3.4 +1.4
Brad Miller 26 arb 1521.4 0.5 +3.9
Steven Souza Jr. 27 pre-arb 1201.1 0.5 +3.2
Alex Colomé 27 arb 571.1 0.5 +2.9
Matt Moore↔ SFG 27 arb 211.0 3.2 +0.2
Xavier Cedeño 29 arb 540.9 0.5 +2.4
Logan Morrison 28 FA-elig 1070.7 4.2 -2.0
Brandon Guyer↔ CLE 30 arb 630.7 0.7 +1.4
Corey Dickerson 27 arb 1480.6 0.5 +1.5
Tim Beckham 26 arb 640.6 0.5 +1.5
Curt Casali 27 pre-arb 840.6 0.5 +1.4
Nick Franklin 25 pre-arb 600.4 0.2 +1.1
Dylan Floro 25 – 120.4 0.1 +1.0
Luke Maile 25 pre-arb 420.3 0.2 +0.8
Desmond Jennings 29 FA-elig 650.3 3.3 -2.4
Bobby Wilson↔ DET 33 arb 280.3 0.1 +0.7
Chase Whitley 27 pre-arb 50.2 0.5 +0.0
Tyler Sturdevant 30 – 160.2 0.1 +0.4
Ryan Garton 26 – 370.1 0.3 +0.0
Matt Duffy↔ SFG 25 pre-arb 210.1 0.1 +0.1
Richie Shaffer 25 pre-arb 200.1 0.1 +0.1
Ryan Webb 30 FA-elig 180.0 1.0 -0.9
Alexei Ramirez↔ SDP 34 FA-elig 170.0 0.4 -0.3
Eddie Gamboa 31 – 7-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Jhan Mariñez↔ MIL 27 – 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Hank Conger 28 FA-elig 49-0.1 1.5 -1.7
Juniel Querecuto 23 – 4-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Alex Cobb 28 arb 5-0.1 4.0 -4.3
Oswaldo Arcia↔ MIA 25 arb 21-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Justin Marks 28 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Enny Romero 25 arb 52-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Taylor Motter 26 – 34-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Brad Boxberger 28 arb 27-0.3 0.5 -1.6
Danny Farquhar 29 arb 35-0.4 0.5 -1.8
Jaff Decker 26 pre-arb 19-0.4 0.1 -1.4
Kevin Jepsen↔ MIN 31 FA-elig 25-0.4 2.3 -3.7
Dana Eveland 32 FA-elig 33-0.5 0.9 -2.4
Erasmo Ramírez 26 arb 64-0.5 2.4 -3.9
Steve Geltz 28 arb 27-0.9 0.5 -3.3
Mikie Mahtook 26 pre-arb 65-1.0 0.5 -3.9

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Blake Snell1.8
Steve Pearce1.5
Brad Miller1.4
Logan Morrison0.7
Corey Dickerson0.6
Dylan Floro0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Asdrúbal Cabrera2.6
Nate Karns1.6
Jake McGee1.1
John Jaso0.7
J.P. Arencibia0.6
David DeJesus0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$58.0M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Evan Longoria307.170$11.5MFREE AGENT
Steve Pearce339.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Desmond Jennings296.000$3.3MFREE AGENT
Ryan Webb307.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Alexei Ramirez348.000$352kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Logan Morrison285.069$4.2MFREE AGENT
Alex Cobb284.061$4.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Smyly273.154$3.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Moore274.000$3.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Jepsen315.163$2.3MFREE AGENT
Logan Forsythe294.113$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Hank Conger284.051$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dana Eveland324.164$895kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Guyer303.066$739kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Wilson334.058$115kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (33)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Chris Archer272.156$2.9MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erasmo Ramírez262.157$2.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Miller262.094$528kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Farquhar292.080$527kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase Whitley271.125$525kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Cedeño292.060$524kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Dickerson272.101$523kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Colomé271.118$522kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Odorizzi262.042$521kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Geltz281.035$519kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Boxberger282.109$519kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Souza Jr.272.000$516kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Beckham261.145$514kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Kiermaier261.131$514kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curt Casali271.014$514kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mikie Mahtook260.058$512kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enny Romero250.072$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Andriese260.095$410kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Snell230.000$305kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Garton260.000$275kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Maile250.034$222kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Franklin251.099$191kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oswaldo Arcia252.020$163kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Motter260.000$136kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Sturdevant30–$130k
Matt Duffy250.021$124kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Floro250.000$111kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richie Shaffer250.062$111kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Gamboa310.000$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jaff Decker260.098$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Marks280.031$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juniel Querecuto230.000$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhan Mariñez271.095$26kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.