RRosternomics
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Mariners SEA

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GM: Jerry Dipoto

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.24× league · TAB -0.9
-0.9TAB — talent above budget14th/30
+4.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)13th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars8th/30
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag12th/30
37%dead money %17th/30
0.549win %12th/30
36.0roster fWAR12th/30
-40surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/30
$162Mpayroll $M8th/30

Roster

CFGuillermo Heredia 89GDee Strange-Gordon 53GCameron Maybin 50G
LFDenard Span 120GCameron Maybin 56GBen Gamel 48G
RFMitch Haniger 144GBen Gamel 40GNelson Cruz 4G
SSJean Segura 144GAndrew Romine 18GDee Strange-Gordon 8G
2BDee Strange-Gordon 81GRobinson Canó 69GAndrew Romine 18G
3BKyle Seager 154GAndrew Romine 6GGordon Beckham 6G
1BRyon Healy 131GDaniel Vogelbach 20GAndrew Romine 16G
STARTERSJames Paxton 3.7WARMarco Gonzales 3.5WARMike Leake 2.3WARWade LeBlanc 1.7WARFélix Hernández 0.2WAR
CMike Zunino 111GDavid Freitas 35GChris Herrmann 28G
DHNelson Cruz 136GDenard Span 10GDaniel Vogelbach 9G
BULLPEN★ Edwin Díaz 57svAlex Colomé 30hJuan Nicasio 19hJames Pazos 19hZach Duke 17hNick Vincent 15hAdam Warren 4hChasen Bradford 2h
CMike Zunino 111 · David Freitas 35 · Chris Herrmann 28
1BRyon Healy 131 · Daniel Vogelbach 20 · Andrew Romine 16
2BDee Strange-Gordon 81 · Robinson Canó 69 · Andrew Romine 18
3BKyle Seager 154 · Andrew Romine 6 · Gordon Beckham 6
SSJean Segura 144 · Andrew Romine 18 · Dee Strange-Gordon 8
LFDenard Span 120 · Cameron Maybin 56 · Ben Gamel 48
CFGuillermo Heredia 89 · Dee Strange-Gordon 53 · Cameron Maybin 50
RFMitch Haniger 144 · Ben Gamel 40 · Nelson Cruz 4
DHNelson Cruz 136 · Denard Span 10 · Daniel Vogelbach 9
SPJames Paxton 3.7 · Marco Gonzales 3.5 · Mike Leake 2.3 · Wade LeBlanc 1.7 · Félix Hernández 0.2
BP★ Edwin Díaz 57 · Alex Colomé 30 · Juan Nicasio 19 · James Pazos 19 · Zach Duke 17 · Nick Vincent 15 · Adam Warren 4 · Chasen Bradford 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Mitch Haniger 27 pre-arb 1575.0 0.6 +16.4
Jean Segura 28 FA-elig 1443.8 9.6 +3.3
James Paxton 29 arb 283.7 4.9 +7.7
Edwin Díaz 24 pre-arb 733.5 0.6 +11.3
Marco Gonzales 26 pre-arb 293.5 0.6 +11.2
Robinson Canó 35 FA-elig 802.9 12.3 -2.4
Nelson Cruz 37 FA-elig 1442.8 14.2 -4.6
Mike Leake 30 FA-elig 312.3 17.0 -9.3
Mike Zunino 27 arb 1132.0 3.0 +3.7
Wade LeBlanc 33 FA-elig 321.7 0.7 +5.0
Denard Span↔ TBR 34 FA-elig 941.3 7.5 -3.3
Roenis Elías 29 pre-arb 231.0 0.4 +3.0
Guillermo Heredia 27 pre-arb 1250.9 0.7 +2.5
Juan Nicasio 31 FA-elig 460.8 7.8 -5.2
Ben Gamel 26 pre-arb 1010.7 0.5 +1.9
Kyle Seager 30 FA-elig 1550.6 19.0 -16.8
Nick Vincent 31 FA-elig 620.6 2.8 -0.6
James Pazos 27 pre-arb 600.5 0.5 +1.2
Chris Herrmann 30 arb 360.5 0.4 +1.2
Alex Colomé↔ TBR 29 arb 470.4 3.6 -2.3
Dee Strange-Gordon 30 FA-elig 1410.3 10.8 -9.7
Erik Goeddel↔ LAD 29 – 50.2 0.1 +0.7
Félix Hernández 32 FA-elig 290.2 26.9 -26.1
Shawn Armstrong 27 pre-arb 140.2 0.1 +0.5
Mike Morin 27 arb 30.1 0.8 -0.3
Sam Tuivailala↔ STL 25 arb 50.1 0.1 +0.3
John Andreoli↔ BAL 28 – 30.1 0.0 +0.4
Daniel Vogelbach 25 – 370.1 – –
Aríel Miranda 29 – 10.1 0.0 +0.3
Matt Festa 25 – 80.1 0.1 +0.2
Zach Duke↔ MIN 35 FA-elig 270.1 0.8 -0.5
Kristopher Negrón↔ ARI 32 – 180.1 – –
Gordon Beckham 31 FA-elig 220.0 0.1 +0.1
David Freitas 29 pre-arb 360.0 0.4 -0.3
Rob Whalen 24 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Justin Grimm↔ KCR 29 FA-elig 5-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Casey Lawrence 30 pre-arb 11-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Taylor Motter↔ MIN 28 – 8-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Zach Vincej 27 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Cameron Maybin↔ MIA 31 FA-elig 30-0.1 0.8 -1.0
Ross Detwiler 32 FA-elig 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Adam Warren↔ NYY 30 FA-elig 23-0.1 1.6 -2.0
Christian Bergman 30 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Dan Altavilla 25 pre-arb 22-0.1 0.4 -0.8
Ryan Cook 31 arb 19-0.2 0.2 -0.8
Andrew Romine 32 FA-elig 75-0.2 1.1 -1.7
Mike Marjama 28 pre-arb 10-0.3 0.1 -0.9
Marc Rzepczynski↔ CLE 32 FA-elig 18-0.3 4.3 -5.3
Chasen Bradford 28 pre-arb 46-0.3 0.4 -1.6
Nick Rumbelow 26 pre-arb 13-0.4 0.2 -1.4
Ichiro Suzuki 44 FA-elig 15-0.6 0.8 -2.7
Ryon Healy 26 pre-arb 133-0.6 0.6 -2.6
Erasmo Ramírez 28 FA-elig 10-0.6 4.2 -6.4

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Wade LeBlanc1.7
Denard Span1.3
Roenis Elías1.0
Juan Nicasio0.8
Chris Herrmann0.5
Alex Colomé0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Jarrod Dyson1.8
Emilio Pagán0.8
Andrew Albers0.7
Danny Valencia0.6
Tony Zych0.3
Yonder Alonso0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$161.6M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Félix Hernández3212.060$26.9MFREE AGENT
Kyle Seager306.085$19.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Leake308.000$17.0MFREE AGENT
Nelson Cruz3710.082$14.2MFREE AGENT
Robinson Canó3512.153$12.3MFREE AGENT
Juan Nicasio316.084$7.8MFREE AGENT
Denard Span349.111$7.5MFREE AGENT
Marc Rzepczynski329.000$4.3MFREE AGENT
Zach Duke3511.054$806kFREE AGENT
Cameron Maybin318.073$756kFREE AGENT
Ichiro Suzuki4417.000$750kFREE AGENT
Gordon Beckham317.153$100kFREE AGENT
Ross Detwiler326.085$3kFREE AGENT
Kristopher Negrón326.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Dee Strange-Gordon305.154$10.8MFREE AGENT
Jean Segura285.065$9.6MFREE AGENT
James Paxton293.151$4.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erasmo Ramírez284.157$4.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Colomé293.118$3.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Zunino273.165$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Vincent314.067$2.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Warren305.036$1.6MFREE AGENT
Andrew Romine325.049$1.1MFREE AGENT
Mike Morin273.030$750kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade LeBlanc334.131$700kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Herrmann304.001$372kARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Grimm294.153$298kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Cook314.086$193kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Guillermo Heredia271.054$715kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Díaz241.121$571kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Haniger271.048$560kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryon Healy261.080$559kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Gonzales260.102$550kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Pazos271.067$515kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Gamel261.029$501kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chasen Bradford280.087$448kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Altavilla250.150$440kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roenis Elías292.116$392kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Freitas290.033$363kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Lawrence300.093$234kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Rumbelow260.092$161kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Armstrong270.166$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Tuivailala251.082$77kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Festa250.000$70kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Marjama280.031$65kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Goeddel291.126$64kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Motter281.033$55kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Bergman302.126$18kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Andreoli280.000$14kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Whalen240.095$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Vincej270.031$9kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aríel Miranda292.061$3kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Vogelbach252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.