TBR⇄SEA⇄CLE

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$186.4M net +22.4

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $32M expected surplus · +$180.8M realized received 2.3 ± 4 expected · 21.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2019 odds 79% → 87% (+7.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yandy Díaz1B/3B/DH·27y·R/R

+$5.5M+$5.5M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$176.0M 1.8± 4 exp WARrealized 20.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Cole SulserP·29y·R/R

−$1.1M−$1.1M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

#741 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.47 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$14.4M net -4.5

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $11M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 1.9 ± 1 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2019 odds 2% → 1% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Edwin Encarnación1B/3B/DH·36y·R/R

+$11.0M+$11.0M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 1.9± 1 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

1.94/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net −$172.0M net -17.9

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $33M expected surplus · +$16.8M realized received 2.9 ± 4 expected · 5.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2019 odds 66% → 70% (+4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos Santana1B·33y·B/R

+$9.9M+$9.9M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$22.4M 1.8± 1 exp WARrealized 6.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.5/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

1.84/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Jake Bauers1B/OF·23y·L/L

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $31M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.1± 4 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

Composite #54.5 pedigree (Baseball America #45 (2018) / MLB Pipeline #64 (2018)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.