SEA⇄MIN

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $7M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Zach DukeP·35y·L/L

+$1.4M+$1.4M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.36/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Derek Falvey net −$1.6M net -0.1

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $26M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.5 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ryan Costello

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Chase De JongP·24y·L/R

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.3± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#81 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.05/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.