SEA⇄STL

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$3.2M net +0.7

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $22M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 0.8 ± 3 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2018 odds 21% → 22% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sam TuivailalaP·25y·R/R

+$0.5M+$0.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

#106 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL John Mozeliak net −$3.2M net -0.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2018 odds 12% → 11% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Seth ElledgeP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#123 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.