TBR⇄SEA

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$3.2M net +3.5

received +$33.6M+$33.6M ± $42M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 8.2 ± 5 expected · 4.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2019 odds 87% → 87% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike ZuninoC·28y·R/R

+$17.0M+$17.0M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 4.2± 4 exp WARrealized 4.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.32/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.2/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

2.12/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Guillermo HerediaOF·28y·R/L

+$14.5M+$14.5M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 2.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.72/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Michael PlassmeyerP·22y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#118 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$3.2M net -3.5

received +$80.0M+$80.0M ± $43M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 10.4 ± 5 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2019 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mallex SmithOF·26y·L/R

+$77.8M+$77.8M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 9.2± 5 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.6/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

2.31/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jake FraleyOF·24y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

#77 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.