NYY⇄SEA

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$15.2M net +0.7

received +$73.6M+$73.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$32.8M realized received 5.4 ± 2 expected · 3.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2019 odds 70% → 84% (+13.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

James PaxtonP·30y·L/L

+$73.7M+$73.7M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$32.8M 5.4± 2 exp WARrealized 3.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.3/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

2.77/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$15.2M net -0.7

received +$23.2M+$23.2M ± $35M expected surplus · +$17.6M realized received 5.5 ± 4 expected · 3.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2019 odds 2% → 1% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Justus SheffieldP·23y·L/L

+$19.2M+$19.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$11.2M 3.0± 2 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

Composite #35.0 pedigree (Baseball America #27 (2019) / MLB Pipeline #43 (2019)) → 0.69/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.55/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dom Thompson-WilliamsCF·24y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#158 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Erik SwansonP·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

#246 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.