RRosternomics
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Mariners SEA

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GM: Jerry Dipoto

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↗ rising
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.18× league · TAB -4.5
-4.5TAB — talent above budget20th/30
-6.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/30
-5.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
52%dead money %25th/30
0.481win %16th/30
31.8roster fWAR14th/30
-45surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$154Mpayroll $M10th/30

Roster

CFJarrod Dyson 96GGuillermo Heredia 63GJacob Hannemann 7G
LFBen Gamel 85GGuillermo Heredia 62GTaylor Motter 15G
RFMitch Haniger 94GBen Gamel 50GDanny Valencia 10G
SSJean Segura 124GTaylor Motter 39GTyler Smith 6G
2BRobinson Canó 150GTaylor Motter 18GGordon Beckham 5G
3BKyle Seager 154GTaylor Motter 6GGordon Beckham 1G
1BYonder Alonso 135GDanny Valencia 118GTaylor Motter 15G
STARTERSJames Paxton 4.4WARMike Leake 1.2WARAndrew Albers 0.7WARErasmo Ramírez 0.6WARFélix Hernández 0.3WAR
CMike Zunino 120GCarlos Ruiz 47GTuffy Gosewisch 10G
DHNelson Cruz 147GBoog Powell 9GDaniel Vogelbach 2G
BULLPEN★ Edwin Díaz 34svNick Vincent 29hDavid Phelps 21hMarc Rzepczynski 20hTony Zych 12hJames Pazos 10hEmilio Pagán 8hDan Altavilla 2h
CMike Zunino 120 · Carlos Ruiz 47 · Tuffy Gosewisch 10
1BYonder Alonso 135 · Danny Valencia 118 · Taylor Motter 15
2BRobinson Canó 150 · Taylor Motter 18 · Gordon Beckham 5
3BKyle Seager 154 · Taylor Motter 6 · Gordon Beckham 1
SSJean Segura 124 · Taylor Motter 39 · Tyler Smith 6
LFBen Gamel 85 · Guillermo Heredia 62 · Taylor Motter 15
CFJarrod Dyson 96 · Guillermo Heredia 63 · Jacob Hannemann 7
RFMitch Haniger 94 · Ben Gamel 50 · Danny Valencia 10
DHNelson Cruz 147 · Boog Powell 9 · Daniel Vogelbach 2
SPJames Paxton 4.4 · Mike Leake 1.2 · Andrew Albers 0.7 · Erasmo Ramírez 0.6 · Félix Hernández 0.3
BP★ Edwin Díaz 34 · Nick Vincent 29 · David Phelps 21 · Marc Rzepczynski 20 · Tony Zych 12 · James Pazos 10 · Emilio Pagán 8 · Dan Altavilla 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2017 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Mike Zunino 26 arb 1244.4 0.6 +14.3
James Paxton 28 arb 244.4 2.4 +12.5
Kyle Seager 29 FA-elig 1543.6 11.0 +1.0
Jean Segura 27 arb 1253.5 6.2 +5.7
Nelson Cruz 36 FA-elig 1553.5 14.2 -2.3
Robinson Canó 34 FA-elig 1502.9 24.0 -14.1
Mitch Haniger 26 pre-arb 962.4 0.5 +7.6
Jarrod Dyson 32 FA-elig 1111.8 2.8 +3.4
Nick Vincent 30 arb 691.7 1.3 +4.5
Mike Leake↔ STL 29 FA-elig 51.2 2.3 +1.7
Ben Gamel 25 pre-arb 1341.0 0.5 +2.9
Guillermo Heredia 26 pre-arb 1231.0 0.8 +2.6
Edwin Díaz 23 pre-arb 660.9 0.5 +2.6
Emilio Pagán 26 – 340.8 0.2 +2.5
Andrew Albers 31 pre-arb 90.7 0.1 +2.3
Erasmo Ramírez↔ TBR 27 arb 110.6 0.9 +1.0
Danny Valencia 32 FA-elig 1300.6 5.5 -3.6
Félix Hernández 31 FA-elig 160.3 26.9 -25.7
Tony Zych 26 pre-arb 450.3 0.5 +0.6
James Pazos 26 pre-arb 590.3 0.5 +0.5
Marco Gonzales↔ STL 25 pre-arb 100.3 0.2 +0.8
Yonder Alonso↔ OAK 30 FA-elig 420.3 1.2 -0.3
David Phelps↔ MIA 30 arb 100.2 0.9 -0.1
Mike Marjama 27 – 50.2 0.1 +0.5
Ryan Garton↔ TBR 27 pre-arb 130.1 0.1 +0.4
Ryan Weber 26 pre-arb 10.1 0.4 -0.1
Yovani Gallardo 31 FA-elig 280.0 11.0 -10.8
Tyler Cloyd 30 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Thyago Vieira 24 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Tyler Smith 25 – 100.0 0.1 -0.0
Shae Simmons 26 arb 90.0 0.5 -0.5
Cody Martin 27 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Andrew Moore 23 – 11-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Max Povse 23 – 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Marc Rzepczynski 31 FA-elig 64-0.0 5.5 -5.6
Danny Espinosa↔ ANA 30 FA-elig 8-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Gordon Beckham 30 FA-elig 11-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Dillon Overton↔ SDP 25 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Dan Altavilla 24 pre-arb 41-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Aríel Miranda 28 pre-arb 32-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Rob Whalen 23 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Evan Marshall 27 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Jean Machi 35 arb 5-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Zac Curtis↔ PHI 24 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Steve Cishek↔ TBR 31 FA-elig 23-0.1 2.8 -3.1
Casey Lawrence↔ TOR 29 – 23-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Evan Scribner 31 FA-elig 8-0.2 0.9 -1.5
Boog Powell↔ OAK 24 – 23-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Jacob Hannemann 26 pre-arb 11-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Chase De Jong 23 – 7-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Christian Bergman 29 pre-arb 13-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Hisashi Iwakuma 36 arb 6-0.2 14.0 -14.8
Daniel Vogelbach 24 – 16-0.3 – –
Leonys Martin↔ CHC 29 FA-elig 34-0.3 3.4 -4.4
Casey Fien↔ PHI 33 FA-elig 6-0.3 0.7 -1.7
Chris Heston↔ MIN 29 – 2-0.3 0.0 -1.1
Sam Gaviglio↔ KCR 27 – 12-0.4 0.1 -1.5
Carlos Ruiz 38 FA-elig 54-0.4 4.5 -5.9
Mike Freeman↔ CHC 29 – 16-0.4 0.0 -1.5
Tuffy Gosewisch 33 arb 11-0.5 0.6 -2.2
Taylor Motter 27 pre-arb 92-0.7 0.5 -3.0

Key additions (new vs 2016)

PlayerfWAR
Jean Segura3.5
Mitch Haniger2.4
Jarrod Dyson1.8
Mike Leake1.2
Emilio Pagán0.8
Andrew Albers0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2016)

Player2016 fWAR
Nate Karns1.4
Norichika Aoki1.3
Mike Montgomery1.0
Franklin Gutierrez0.9
Seth Smith0.8
Wade Miley0.8

Current & Historical Payroll

2017 payroll
$153.6M
2018 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2017, 2017–2023. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2017; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Félix Hernández3111.060$26.9MFREE AGENT
Robinson Canó3411.153$24.0MFREE AGENT
Nelson Cruz369.082$14.2MFREE AGENT
Yovani Gallardo319.108$11.0MFREE AGENT
Marc Rzepczynski316.132$5.5MFREE AGENT
Carlos Ruiz3810.069$4.5MFREE AGENT
Mike Leake297.000$2.3MFREE AGENT
Gordon Beckham307.123$85kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Hisashi Iwakuma365.000$14.0MFREE AGENT
Kyle Seager295.085$11.0MFREE AGENT
Jean Segura274.065$6.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Valencia325.118$5.5MFREE AGENT
Leonys Martin294.078$3.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Cishek315.143$2.8MFREE AGENT
Jarrod Dyson325.088$2.8MFREE AGENT
Nick Vincent303.067$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yonder Alonso305.116$1.2MFREE AGENT
Erasmo Ramírez273.157$929kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Scribner313.142$908kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Phelps304.156$852kARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Fien334.118$660kARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Espinosa305.113$467kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (39)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
James Paxton282.151$2.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillermo Heredia260.054$782kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tuffy Gosewisch332.154$635kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Zunino262.165$570kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Díaz230.121$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aríel Miranda281.061$540kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Zych261.006$540kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Haniger260.048$538kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Whalen230.061$538kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Motter270.049$537kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Pazos260.067$536kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shae Simmons262.111$536kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Altavilla240.037$536kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jean Machi352.154$535kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Overton250.032$483kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Gamel250.042$465kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Weber260.097$354kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Emilio Pagán260.000$243kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Marshall271.073$219kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Lawrence290.000$199kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Moore230.000$172kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Gonzales250.043$154kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Bergman292.075$143kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Albers310.112$140kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Gaviglio270.000$138kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Marjama270.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Hannemann260.027$82kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase De Jong230.000$76kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Boog Powell240.000$69kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Garton270.097$59kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Smith25–$58k
Mike Freeman290.038$41kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Povse23–$41k
Zac Curtis240.097$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Cloyd300.094$20kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Heston292.140$10kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Martin270.075$9kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thyago Vieira240.000$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Vogelbach241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 2017; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.