SEA⇄TBR

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$4.0M net +1.9

received +$22.4M+$22.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 3.7 ± 3 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2018 odds 16% → 22% (+5.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alex ColoméP·29y·R/R

+$22.8M+$22.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 2.5± 3 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.88/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Denard SpanOF·34y·L/L

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 1 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.21/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$4.0M net -1.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $32M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 2.0 ± 4 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2018 odds 69% → 60% (-8.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tommy RomeroP·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#453 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Andrew MooreP·24y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#72 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.