NYY⇄SEA

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2018 odds 94% → 94% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$1.6M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $7M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2018 odds 22% → 22% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adam WarrenP·30y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.