RRosternomics
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Mariners SEA

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GM: Jerry Dipoto

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.91× league · TAB -11.3
-11.3TAB — talent above budget23rd/30
-12.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)24th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars28th/30
-5.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
53%dead money %24th/30
0.420win %25th/30
21.7roster fWAR24th/30
-47surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$117Mpayroll $M18th/30

Roster

CFMallex Smith 106GKeon Broxton 65GMitch Haniger 24G
LFDomingo Santana 59GMac Williamson 36GTim Lopes 33G
RFMitch Haniger 43GDomingo Santana 42GMallex Smith 28G
SSJ.P. Crawford 93GTim Beckham 41GDylan Moore 31G
2BDee Strange-Gordon 111GShed Long Jr. 24GDylan Moore 18G
3BKyle Seager 104GRyon Healy 44GDylan Moore 14G
1BAustin Nola 59GDaniel Vogelbach 57GJay Bruce 16G
STARTERSMarco Gonzales 3.7WARJustus Sheffield 0.3WARMatt Wisler 0.3WARYusei Kikuchi 0.2WARTommy Milone 0.0WAR
COmar Narváez 98GTom Murphy 67GAustin Nola 7G
DHDaniel Vogelbach 81GOmar Narváez 19GDomingo Santana 17G
BULLPEN★ Anthony Bass 5svAustin Adams 10hBrandon Brennan 8hSam Tuivailala 7hMatt Festa 3hConnor Sadzeck 2hMatt Magill 1hMike Wright Jr. 0h
COmar Narváez 98 · Tom Murphy 67 · Austin Nola 7
1BAustin Nola 59 · Daniel Vogelbach 57 · Jay Bruce 16
2BDee Strange-Gordon 111 · Shed Long Jr. 24 · Dylan Moore 18
3BKyle Seager 104 · Ryon Healy 44 · Dylan Moore 14
SSJ.P. Crawford 93 · Tim Beckham 41 · Dylan Moore 31
LFDomingo Santana 59 · Mac Williamson 36 · Tim Lopes 33
CFMallex Smith 106 · Keon Broxton 65 · Mitch Haniger 24
RFMitch Haniger 43 · Domingo Santana 42 · Mallex Smith 28
DHDaniel Vogelbach 81 · Omar Narváez 19 · Domingo Santana 17
SPMarco Gonzales 3.7 · Justus Sheffield 0.3 · Matt Wisler 0.3 · Yusei Kikuchi 0.2 · Tommy Milone 0.0
BP★ Anthony Bass 5 · Austin Adams 10 · Brandon Brennan 8 · Sam Tuivailala 7 · Matt Festa 3 · Connor Sadzeck 2 · Matt Magill 1 · Mike Wright Jr. 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2019 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Marco Gonzales 27 arb 343.7 0.9 +11.1
Tom Murphy 28 pre-arb 763.1 0.6 +9.7
Kyle Seager 31 FA-elig 1062.4 19.5 -11.5
Edwin Encarnación↔ NYY 36 – 651.5 5.2 -0.1
Mallex Smith 26 arb 1341.4 0.6 +4.0
Mike Leake↔ ARI 31 FA-elig 221.3 11.0 -6.8
Mitch Haniger 28 arb 631.2 0.6 +3.3
Omar Narváez 27 arb 1321.2 0.6 +3.3
Austin Nola 29 – 791.1 0.3 +3.2
J.P. Crawford 24 pre-arb 931.1 0.4 +3.0
Daniel Vogelbach 26 arb 1441.0 0.6 +2.8
Dylan Moore 26 pre-arb 1130.9 0.6 +2.3
Austin Adams↔ WSN 28 pre-arb 290.7 0.4 +2.0
Dee Strange-Gordon 31 FA-elig 1170.7 13.3 -10.9
Kyle Lewis 23 – 180.6 0.1 +2.1
Anthony Bass 31 arb 440.6 0.4 +1.4
Shed Long Jr. 23 – 420.5 0.2 +1.6
Jay Bruce↔ PHI 32 FA-elig 470.5 6.7 -5.1
Tim Lopes 25 – 410.5 – –
Matt Magill↔ MIN 29 FA-elig 220.5 0.2 +1.3
Sam Tuivailala 26 arb 230.5 0.6 +1.0
Zac Grotz 26 – 140.4 0.2 +1.1
Justus Sheffield 23 pre-arb 80.3 0.1 +0.8
Matt Wisler↔ SDP 26 arb 230.3 0.3 +0.6
Cory Gearrin↔ NYY 33 FA-elig 480.3 1.1 -0.2
Roenis Elías↔ WSN 30 arb 440.2 0.8 -0.2
Yusei Kikuchi 28 pre-arb 320.2 10.0 -9.5
Mike Wright Jr.↔ BAL 29 arb 90.1 0.3 +0.2
Domingo Santana 26 arb 1210.1 1.9 -1.5
Brandon Brennan 27 pre-arb 440.1 0.6 -0.2
Dan Altavilla 26 pre-arb 170.1 0.3 +0.0
Art Warren 26 – 60.1 0.1 +0.3
Tim Beckham 29 FA-elig 880.1 1.8 -1.5
Connor Sadzeck 27 pre-arb 200.1 0.5 -0.3
Zac Rosscup↔ LAD 31 FA-elig 190.1 0.4 -0.1
Justin Dunn 23 – 40.1 0.1 +0.1
Tommy Milone 32 arb 230.0 0.4 -0.4
Ryon Healy 27 arb 470.0 0.6 -0.6
Ryan Court 31 – 12-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Kristopher Negrón↔ LAD 33 – 10-0.0 – –
David Freitas↔ MIL 30 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Hunter Strickland↔ WSN 30 arb 4-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Matt Carasiti 27 pre-arb 11-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Tayler Scott↔ BAL 27 – 5-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Ichiro Suzuki 45 FA-elig 2-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Taylor Guilbeau 26 – 17-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Donovan Walton 25 – 7-0.1 – –
David McKay↔ DET 24 – 7-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Reggie McClain 26 – 14-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Ryan Garton 29 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Andrew Moore 25 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Shawn Armstrong↔ BAL 28 arb 4-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Jesse Biddle↔ ATL 27 pre-arb 11-0.2 0.2 -0.8
Félix Hernández 33 FA-elig 15-0.2 27.9 -28.4
Gerson Bautista 24 pre-arb 8-0.2 0.6 -1.2
R.J. Alaniz↔ CIN 28 – 4-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Parker Markel↔ PIT 28 – 5-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Mac Williamson↔ SFG 28 arb 25-0.2 0.4 -1.2
Keon Broxton↔ BAL 29 arb 29-0.2 0.2 -1.0
Matt Festa 26 pre-arb 20-0.3 0.6 -1.4
Nick Rumbelow 27 arb 3-0.3 0.6 -1.4
Wade LeBlanc 34 FA-elig 26-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Erik Swanson 25 – 27-0.3 0.3 -1.4
Chasen Bradford 29 pre-arb 12-0.4 0.6 -1.8
Jake Fraley 24 – 12-0.4 0.1 -1.4
Anthony Swarzak↔ ATL 33 FA-elig 15-0.6 2.2 -4.2
Braden Bishop 25 – 27-0.7 0.4 -2.7

Key additions (new vs 2018)

PlayerfWAR
Tom Murphy3.1
Edwin Encarnación1.5
Mallex Smith1.4
Omar Narváez1.2
Austin Nola1.1
J.P. Crawford1.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2018)

Player2018 fWAR
James Paxton3.7
Edwin Díaz3.5
Nelson Cruz2.8
Mike Zunino2.0
Guillermo Heredia0.9
Juan Nicasio0.8

Current & Historical Payroll

2019 payroll
$117.3M
2020 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2019, 2019–2025. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2019; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Félix Hernández3313.060$27.9MFREE AGENT
Kyle Seager317.085$19.5MFREE AGENT
Dee Strange-Gordon316.154$13.3MFREE AGENT
Mike Leake319.000$11.0MFREE AGENT
Jay Bruce3210.125$6.7MFREE AGENT
Edwin Encarnación3613.085$5.2MFREE AGENT
Anthony Swarzak337.024$2.2MFREE AGENT
Ichiro Suzuki4518.000$100kFREE AGENT
Kristopher Negrón337.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Domingo Santana263.024$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Beckham294.134$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Gearrin335.136$1.1MFREE AGENT
Roenis Elías303.069$834kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Vogelbach263.000$559kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade LeBlanc345.131$450kFREE AGENT
Zac Rosscup313.164$414kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Bass314.050$394kARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Milone325.153$394kFREE AGENT
Mike Wright Jr.294.000$269kARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Strickland303.163$186kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (47)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Yusei Kikuchi280.000$10.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Gonzales271.102$900kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Haniger282.048$590kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Omar Narváez272.089$581kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryon Healy272.080$580kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mallex Smith262.125$578kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Brennan270.000$575kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Tuivailala262.082$569kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Moore260.000$565kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chasen Bradford291.084$562kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Rumbelow270.149$559kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Festa260.024$556kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gerson Bautista240.018$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Murphy281.092$554kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Sadzeck270.031$538kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. Crawford241.020$427kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Adams280.043$404kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Braden Bishop250.000$394kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mac Williamson281.113$355kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Swanson250.000$331kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Nola290.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Altavilla261.129$307kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wisler262.042$298kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Magill291.031$246kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Biddle271.166$211kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reggie McClain260.000$176kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shed Long Jr.23–$167k
Keon Broxton292.038$166kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zac Grotz260.000$155kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Guilbeau260.000$137kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Fraley240.000$122kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justus Sheffield230.013$113kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Carasiti270.052$104kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Court31–$75k
Justin Dunn230.000$60kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Art Warren260.000$60kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Lewis230.000$60kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Moore250.062$45kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
R.J. Alaniz280.000$44kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Armstrong281.028$41kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David McKay240.000$39kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tayler Scott270.000$37kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Freitas300.159$33kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Garton290.153$24kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Parker Markel28–$20k
Tim Lopes25–—
Donovan Walton25–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 2019; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.