SEA⇄CHW

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$7.2M net +0.1

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 2.6 ± 3 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2019 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Omar NarváezC·27y·L/R

+$6.7M+$6.7M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 2.6± 3 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.65/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$7.2M net -0.1

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $16M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.5 ± 2 expected · 1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2019 odds 1% → 1% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alex ColoméP·30y·R/R

+$5.0M+$5.0M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.82/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.