KCR⇄PHI

KCRKCR J.J. Picollo net +$2.4M net +0.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2023 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

James McArthurP·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

#347 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Dave Dombrowski net −$2.4M net -0.6

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2023 odds 76% → 74% (-2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Junior MarinOF·19y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.