KCR⇄ATL

KCRKCR J.J. Picollo net −$1.6M net +0.3

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $34M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 4.6 ± 4 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2022 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Drew WatersOF·23y·B/R

+$10.0M+$10.0M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 2.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

Composite #33.5 prospect (Baseball America #32 (2021) / MLB Pipeline #35 (2021)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.39/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.39/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CJ Alexander3B·25y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#592 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Andrew HoffmannP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#367 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net +$1.6M net -0.3

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.7 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2022 odds 92% → 91% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Draft pick (≈#35)

+$4.8M+$4.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#35 draft slot (traded pick) → 0.30/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.