ATL⇄KCR

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net +$0.8M net +0.5

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $31M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 4.4 ± 4 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2023 odds 97% → 98% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nicky Lopez2B/SS·28y·L/R

+$12.8M+$12.8M± $31M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 4.4± 4 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.46/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR J.J. Picollo net −$0.8M net -0.5

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $17M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2023 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Taylor HearnP·28y·L/L

+$4.5M+$4.5M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#164 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.