KCR⇄SFG

KCRKCR J.J. Picollo net +$0.8M net +1.3

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $11M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.4 ± 1 expected · 1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2025 odds 11% → 14% (+3.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike YastrzemskiOF·34y·L/L

+$5.9M+$5.9M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.4± 1 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.43/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Buster Posey net −$0.8M net -1.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2025 odds 15% → 11% (-3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yunior MarteP·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.