OAK⇄KCR

OAKOAK David Forst net +$0.8M net +0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

A.J. CauseyP·23y·R/R

+$1.9M+$1.9M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#138 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR J.J. Picollo net −$0.8M net -0.2

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $17M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mitch SpenceP·28y·R/R

+$5.9M+$5.9M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#315 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.62 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.