MIL⇄KCR

MILMIL Matt Arnold net +$4.8M net +0.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2025 odds 74% → 77% (+2.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR J.J. Picollo net −$4.8M net -0.6

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $11M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 1.5 ± 1 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2025 odds 16% → 14% (-1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark CanhaOF·36y·R/R

+$5.3M+$5.3M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.38/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.