KCR⇄OAK

KCRKCR J.J. Picollo net +$10.4M net +2.3

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $18M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 1.5 ± 2 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2024 odds 39% → 48% (+8.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Lucas ErcegP·29y·L/R

+$4.3M+$4.3M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

#46 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.64 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK David Forst net −$10.4M net -2.3

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $37M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 3.7 ± 5 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2024 odds 3% → 2% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jared DickeyRF·22y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#319 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Mason BarnettP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

#87 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Will KleinP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#135 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.