KCR⇄ARI

KCRKCR J.J. Picollo net +$1.6M net +0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2021 odds 2% → 2% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eduardo Herrera

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Mike Hazen net −$1.6M net -0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $22M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.8 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2021 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nick HeathOF·27y·L/L

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#493 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.81 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.