MIL⇄KCR

MILMIL Matt Arnold net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $7M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Taylor ClarkeP·31y·R/R

−$0.4M−$0.4M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.55 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR J.J. Picollo net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ryan BradyP·25y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Cam Devanney3B·27y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#463 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.