KCR⇄BOS

KCRKCR J.J. Picollo net −$0.8M net +0.0

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $10M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.0 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Josh TaylorP·30y·L/L

+$3.0M+$3.0M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.49/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.71 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Chaim Bloom net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $10M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Adalberto MondesíSS·27y·B/R

+$3.1M+$3.1M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.2/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

1.34/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.