RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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President of baseball ops: Jed Hoyer · GM: Carter Hawkins

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↗ rising
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.33× league · TAB -1.7
-1.7TAB — talent above budget20th/30
-2.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)22nd/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars3rd/30
-5.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/30
32%dead money %12th/30
0.512win %15th/30
36.0roster fWAR16th/30
-65surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/30
$215Mpayroll $M8th/30

Roster

CFPete Crow-Armstrong 117GCody Bellinger 48GMike Tauchman 15G
LFIan Happ 144GMike Tauchman 16GAlexander Canario 10G
RFSeiya Suzuki 72GMike Tauchman 51GCody Bellinger 49G
SSDansby Swanson 148GNico Hoerner 10GMiles Mastrobuoni 10G
2BNico Hoerner 144GNick Madrigal 15GMiles Mastrobuoni 10G
3BIsaac Paredes 128GChristopher Morel 74GNick Madrigal 36G
1BMichael Busch 142GPatrick Wisdom 27GCody Bellinger 22G
STARTERSShota Imanaga 3.1WARJustin Steele 3.0WARJameson Taillon 2.3WARBen Brown 1.3WARJavier Assad 1.0WAR
CMiguel Amaya 116GChristian Bethancourt 60GTomás Nido 48G
DHSeiya Suzuki 59GCody Bellinger 24GMike Tauchman 21G
BULLPEN★ Porter Hodge 9svTyson Miller 15hNate Pearson 11hJorge López 10hDrew Smyly 10hLuke Little 3hKeegan Thompson 2hEthan Roberts 1h
CMiguel Amaya 116 · Christian Bethancourt 60 · Tomás Nido 48
1BMichael Busch 142 · Patrick Wisdom 27 · Cody Bellinger 22
2BNico Hoerner 144 · Nick Madrigal 15 · Miles Mastrobuoni 10
3BIsaac Paredes 128 · Christopher Morel 74 · Nick Madrigal 36
SSDansby Swanson 148 · Nico Hoerner 10 · Miles Mastrobuoni 10
LFIan Happ 144 · Mike Tauchman 16 · Alexander Canario 10
CFPete Crow-Armstrong 117 · Cody Bellinger 48 · Mike Tauchman 15
RFSeiya Suzuki 72 · Mike Tauchman 51 · Cody Bellinger 49
DHSeiya Suzuki 59 · Cody Bellinger 24 · Mike Tauchman 21
SPShota Imanaga 3.1 · Justin Steele 3.0 · Jameson Taillon 2.3 · Ben Brown 1.3 · Javier Assad 1.0
BP★ Porter Hodge 9 · Tyson Miller 15 · Nate Pearson 11 · Jorge López 10 · Drew Smyly 10 · Luke Little 3 · Keegan Thompson 2 · Ethan Roberts 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2024 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Dansby Swanson 30 FA-elig 1494.2 26.0 -8.4
Nico Hoerner 27 arb 1513.8 11.5 +4.4
Ian Happ 29 FA-elig 1533.6 21.0 -6.2
Seiya Suzuki 29 pre-arb 1323.5 21.0 -6.6
Shota Imanaga 30 pre-arb 293.1 9.2 +3.6
Justin Steele 28 arb 243.0 4.0 +8.5
Pete Crow-Armstrong 22 pre-arb 1232.6 0.7 +10.2
Jameson Taillon 32 FA-elig 282.3 18.0 -8.2
Michael Busch 26 pre-arb 1522.2 0.7 +8.4
Cody Bellinger 28 FA-elig 1302.1 27.5 -18.8
Ben Brown 24 pre-arb 151.3 0.7 +4.6
Mark Leiter Jr.↔ NYY 33 FA-elig 391.3 1.0 +4.4
Javier Assad 26 pre-arb 291.0 0.8 +3.6
Mike Tauchman 33 FA-elig 1091.0 1.9 +2.4
Porter Hodge 23 pre-arb 390.9 0.7 +3.0
Christian Bethancourt↔ MIA 32 FA-elig 240.6 0.8 +1.8
Miguel Amaya 25 pre-arb 1170.6 0.7 +1.8
Tyson Miller↔ SEA 28 arb 490.5 0.6 +1.5
Kyle Hendricks 34 FA-elig 290.4 16.5 -14.8
Isaac Paredes↔ TBR 25 arb 520.4 1.2 +0.5
Colten Brewer 31 pre-arb 160.3 0.7 +0.6
Jorge López↔ NYM 31 FA-elig 240.3 0.9 +0.2
David Bote 31 FA-elig 370.3 5.5 -4.3
Alexander Canario 24 pre-arb 150.2 0.7 +0.3
Yency Almonte 30 FA-elig 170.2 1.9 -1.0
Nate Pearson↔ TOR 27 arb 190.2 0.3 +0.5
Hayden Wesneski 26 pre-arb 280.2 0.7 +0.0
Garrett Cooper↔ BOS 33 FA-elig 120.2 0.6 +0.1
Keegan Thompson 29 arb 240.2 0.7 -0.1
Héctor Neris↔ HOU 35 FA-elig 460.1 6.7 -6.1
Ethan Roberts 26 pre-arb 210.1 0.7 -0.3
Julian Merryweather 32 arb 150.1 1.2 -0.8
Daniel Palencia 24 pre-arb 100.1 0.7 -0.4
Jesus Tinoco↔ MIA 29 arb 20.1 0.0 +0.3
Luke Little 23 pre-arb 300.1 0.7 -0.4
Hunter Bigge↔ TBR 26 – 40.1 0.0 +0.2
Shawn Armstrong↔ STL 33 FA-elig 80.0 0.3 -0.1
Enoli Paredes↔ MIL 28 arb 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Gavin Hollowell 26 – 10.0 0.1 +0.0
Richard Lovelady↔ TBR 28 arb 7-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Trey Wingenter↔ BOS 30 arb 5-0.1 0.9 -1.1
Caleb Kilian 27 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Jack Neely 24 – 6-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Luis Vázquez 24 pre-arb 11-0.1 0.7 -1.2
Jordan Wicks 24 pre-arb 11-0.1 0.7 -1.2
Kevin Alcántara 21 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Jose Cuas↔ TOR 30 – 9-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Christopher Morel↔ TBR 25 pre-arb 103-0.2 0.5 -1.4
Patrick Wisdom 32 FA-elig 75-0.2 2.7 -3.7
Drew Smyly 35 FA-elig 50-0.3 8.5 -9.6
Tomás Nido↔ NYM 30 FA-elig 17-0.3 0.7 -2.0
Miles Mastrobuoni 28 pre-arb 50-0.4 0.7 -2.4
Matt Mervis 26 pre-arb 9-0.4 0.7 -2.5
Nick Madrigal 27 arb 51-0.7 1.8 -4.7
Adbert Alzolay 29 arb 18-0.8 2.1 -5.5
Yan Gomes 36 FA-elig 34-1.2 6.0 -11.0

Key additions (new vs 2023)

PlayerfWAR
Shota Imanaga3.1
Michael Busch2.2
Ben Brown1.3
Porter Hodge0.9
Christian Bethancourt0.6
Tyson Miller0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2023)

Player2023 fWAR
Michael Fulmer0.4
Jeimer Candelario0.2
Nelson Velázquez0.2
Shane Greene0.0
Nick Burdi0.0
Tyler Duffey-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2024 payroll
$214.6M
2025 guaranteed
$86.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2024, 2024–2030. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2024; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Cody Bellinger286.160$27.5MFREE AGENT
Dansby Swanson307.047$26.0M$28.0M$28.0M$28.0M$27.0M$26.0MFREE AGENT
Seiya Suzuki292.000$21.0M$19.0M$19.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Happ296.036$21.0M$21.0M$19.0MFREE AGENT
Jameson Taillon327.110$18.0M$18.0M$18.0MFREE AGENT
Kyle Hendricks349.081$16.5MFREE AGENT
Drew Smyly3511.143$8.5MFREE AGENT
Héctor Neris3510.000$6.7MFREE AGENT
Yan Gomes3612.000$6.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Leiter Jr.337.000$975kFREE AGENT
Tomás Nido307.000$729kFREE AGENT
Garrett Cooper337.000$583kFREE AGENT
Shawn Armstrong339.000$288kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Nico Hoerner274.014$11.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
David Bote314.083$5.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Wisdom323.058$2.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adbert Alzolay293.050$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Tauchman333.143$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yency Almonte304.143$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Madrigal273.164$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julian Merryweather323.109$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge López315.102$923kFREE AGENT
Trey Wingenter304.017$857kARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Bethancourt324.038$794kARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Pearson273.005$253kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enoli Paredes284.000$41kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Shota Imanaga300.000$9.2MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Steele282.143$4.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Isaac Paredes252.160$1.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier Assad261.027$755kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Amaya250.130$746kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miles Mastrobuoni280.140$746kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Busch260.045$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Wicks240.037$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Little230.140$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Kilian270.020$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keegan Thompson292.034$740kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Crow-Armstrong220.021$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ethan Roberts262.000$740kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Brown240.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Porter Hodge230.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Palencia240.090$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexander Canario240.031$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Mervis260.041$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hayden Wesneski261.008$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Vázquez240.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colten Brewer312.069$656kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyson Miller280.071$625kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christopher Morel251.117$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Lovelady282.026$148kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Neely240.000$135kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Cuas301.129$82kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gavin Hollowell261.018$50kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesus Tinoco291.010$46kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Bigge260.000$33kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Alcántara210.000$16kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2024; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.