CHC⇄LAD

CHCCHC Jed Hoyer net +$65.6M net +7.9

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $21M expected surplus · +$65.6M realized received 0.5 ± 3 expected · 7.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2024 odds 14% → 22% (+8.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yency AlmonteP·30y·R/R

−$0.4M−$0.4M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.61 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Michael Busch1B·26y·L/R

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$66.4M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized 7.7

Prior

Composite #47.0 pedigree (Baseball America #43 (2024) / MLB Pipeline #51 (2024)) → 0.54/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$65.6M net -7.9

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $32M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.6 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2024 odds 90% → 83% (-6.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jackson FerrisP·20y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#47 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Zyhir HopeCF·19y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#326 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.