LAD⇄CHC

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net +$0.8M net +0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $7M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2022 odds 99% → 99% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris MartinP·36y·R/R

+$1.9M+$1.9M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.49/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jed Hoyer net −$0.8M net -0.4

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 0.4 ± 2 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2022 odds 3% → 3% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Zach McKinstry3B/OF·27y·L/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

#1001 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.